The Big Match Tactical View: Manchester United v Arsenal

FA Cup / Michael Cox / 11 March 2011 /

" class="free_bet_btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">

Javier Hernandez may get a start in a 4-3-3, an unsual system for Alex Ferguson to play

"Games between these sides often start at a very high tempo, but we might see a slightly more cautious beginning here, with both sides waiting for the other to make the first move. As a result, I think the second half will see more goals than the first, so will be backing that at around [2.3] in the Half With Most Goals market."

It's the big game of the weekend and as ever team selection and formations will be crucial. Michael Cox looks at some of the best bets amongst the more obscure markets.

Rarely can the sides first and second in the Premier League have come into a match in such similarly poor form. Both have won just one of their last four games - Arsenal's run includes being dumped out of two competitions, Manchester United's includes defeats against Chelsea and Liverpool. With Arsenal desperate not to be eliminated from another cup and United keen not to complete an unwanted 'big four' treble of defeats, this FA Cup game means a lot to both sides.

Arsene Wenger has been known to rest players in FA Cup ties in recent years - even against United - but that's unlikely to be the case here, especially after the humiliating 4-0 defeat Arsenal suffered in the FA Cup tie in 2008. That said, Arsenal will be without Cesc Fabregas after his return at the Nou Camp backfired, and though Robin van Persie played in midweek, it wouldn't be a surprise if he was given a prolonged rest after being rushed back to play Barcelona. Therefore, we may see a slightly weakened side going forward for Arsenal, and either Marouane Chamakh or Nicklas Bendtner may be in with a chance of another cup start.

Manchester United will be without Nani, whilst Rio Ferdinand, Park Ji-Sung and Antonio Valencia are also still out. As usual, Sir Alex Ferguson's formation will be key in predicting the outcome of the game.

Having surprisingly gone with a 4-4-2 last week away at Liverpool - and being defeated convincingly - it wouldn't be a surprise to see Ferguson switch to a 4-3-3. That could mean Wayne Rooney starts wide on the left (where he finished the game at Anfield) with Dimitar Berbatov or Javier Hernandez upfront. Berbatov would be the natural choice, but Hernandez offers pace in behind, and with Arsenal defending with a particularly high line this season, that could be the key for the home side.

With a severe lack of options on the flank with Park, Valencia and Nani all out, Darren Fletcher may be used on the right, as he was against Chelsea. He'll pin Gael Clichy back, and he and Rooney will make it hard for Arsenal to play through their full-backs. Ryan Giggs is another option for the left.

Arsenal have often pressed high up the pitch against big sides this season, but after the draining experience in the Nou Camp, Wenger may instruct his side to sit deeper and play predominantly on the counter-attack. Games between these sides often start at a very high tempo, but we might see a slightly more cautious beginning here, with both sides waiting for the other to make the first move. As a result, I think the second half will see more goals than the first, so will be backing that at around [2.3] in the Half With Most Goals market.

Individual battles will obviously depend largely on team selection, but the midfield contest should be interesting. Ferguson has liked playing both Michael Carrick and Paul Scholes in the centre of midfield recently, and we may see that combination again here - perhaps, with Fletcher out on the right, with Darron Gibson as the furthest forward of the three. That would be a reasonably static midfield trio, and so the battle in the middle of the park could be standoffish at first. The days when Roy Keane and Patrick Vieira would have physical confrontations in the middle of the park (and in the tunnel) are long gone - this fixture has a reputation for being fiery, but this match might be more timid than expected. With that in mind, I'm going to back no sending-off at [1.3] as my second bet. It's not the biggest price in the world but you should be pretty safe.

Hernandez might be a good shout for first goalscorer if he starts - he has a knack of opening the scoring - but watch Rooney's odds too. After a difficult start to the campaign, he's getting back towards his best, and you may get a bigger price than usual on him.

Recommended bets:

Second Half in Half With Most Goals at [2.3]
No sending off at [1.3]

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>