FA Cup / Michael Cox / 27 January 2012 /

Liverpool meet Manchester United in the biggest FA Cup tie of the weekend. Michael Cox thinks the game will be won and lost in the centre of midfield.

Liverpool v Manchester United, Saturday 12:45, ITV1.

Match odds: Liverpool [2.60], Manchester United [3.05], Draw [3.45].

This is sure to be a fiery fixture, but which manager can keep their head and make a clever tactical decision?

Amongst the furore over the Luiz Suarez - Patrice Evra incident, the actual match between the two clubs has been forgotten. And with good reason - it was a poor match played with a lack of ambition from both sides, eventually ending in a 1-1 draw.

One notable aspect of that game was that Sir Alex Ferguson went with a three-man central midfield, leaving Wayne Rooney on the bench with Danny Welbeck upfront alone. It's rare that Ferguson has made such a decision this season, and he needed to call on substitutes Rooney, Nani and goalscorer Javier Hernandez to get back into the game.

Will he do something similar here? Ferguson has favoured a 4-4-2 (or 4-4-1-1 system) since then, and he also has a relative lack of options in the centre of midfield. In the 1-1 daw, he named Phil Jones in the midfield trio, but the former Blackburn man picked up an injury in the win at Arsenal last weekend, and is unavailable.

It's also the midfield selection which will be concerning Kenny Dalglish. Liverpool have struggled without Lucas Leiva sweeping up between the lines, and last week's use of Charlie Adam and Steven Gerrard in a midfield two resulted in Liverpool being extremely open between the lines, with both Mark Davies and Nigel Reo-Coker exploiting that gap to get themselves on the scoresheet. The gap was also obvious when Nigel de Jong scored a rare goal against them in the Carling Cup in midweek.

In that game, Dalglish played more of a 4-5-1 system, with Dirk Kuyt out wide on the right and Jordan Henderson tucked into the middle. I expect Dalglish to do the same again in order to make Liverpool more structured in the centre of the pitch. Henderson won't be playing the Lucas role, of course, but it means Gerrard and Adam won't have to cover so much ground, and can sit deeper.

Upfront, Craig Bellamy seems the logical option over Andy Carroll - Bellamy memorably roared past Rio Ferdinand when his Manchester City side lost 4-3 at Old Trafford a couple of years, and he will fancy his chances of doing the same here. I think [7.2] for first goalscorer is a decent bet.

Ferguson, of course, will look to exploit that space between the lines. United don't have many players capable of making driving runs from midfield, but they do have Wayne Rooney, who will thrive when given space in front of the defence - assuming he starts this time. He'll be asked to drop into midfield when Liverpool have the ball, but Dalglish's side might enjoy something of a numerical advantage at transitions from defence to attack.

That, combined with the fact Liverpool are at home, means they will probably dominate possession in this game. They need to be reasonably purposeful and direct with their passing, though - too often this season they haven't hit defences quickly enough, and United's defeat at Arsenal last weekend showed that they're more vulnerable to quick counter-attacks than long spells of opposition possession, when they can form two banks of four and have a good shape without the ball.

Aside from that, there might be some interesting battles on the flanks, though it's hard to see any clear areas of strength or weakness. Much attention will be on Evra, of course, and he enjoyed a good performance at Arsenal last weekend, but Dirk Kuyt generally does a good job in shutting him out of the game.

This looks likely to be a game dominated by the midfield battle, so selections in that part of the pitch will be crucial. I think this will be reasonably cagey, so will take 'No' in 'Both teams to score?' at [2.2].

Recommended bets:
Bellamy to score first at [7.2]
'No' in 'Both teams to score?' at [2.2]

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