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FA Cup
The Betfair Contrarian: Why none of the Big Four will win the FA Cup
The Betfair Contrarian is at it again, this time telling us why none of the Big Four will be lifting the FA Cup come May
The Contrarian: Why none of the 'Big Four' will win the FA Cup
Since 1989, the Big Four's domination of the FA Cup has only been interrupted twice (by Tottenham in 1991 and Everton in 1995). So much for Michel Platini's scheme to open the Champions League up to smaller teams by awarding a place to cup winners. But before Michel returns to whatever passes for a drawing board at UEFA, here are six reasons why this is the year the Big Four go home empty-handed.
1. The rest of the league is closing the gap
Although they currently occupy four of the top five places in the Premier League, the Big Four are not as dominant as they have been in previous seasons. The average end-of-season gap between the Champions and the fifth-placed club over the last four seasons has been 31.5 points, but at the moment, more than half way through the season, the gap between first and fifth is just 12 points. Furthermore, Man City are currently in fourth place, and Everton, Aston Villa, and Portsmouth are all within four points of fifth-placed Liverpool.
2. The Big Four's luck cannot hold out for ever.
United and Chelsea (the only two Big Four semi-finalists last year) were both taken to replays in their quarter-finals (Chelsea came from 3-1 down at home to Spurs). The Blues then squeezed past Blackburn in the semi-final in extra time. Arsenal qualified for the 2003 final after a narrow semi-final victory over Sheffield United, Liverpool only just beat Wycombe Wanderers to make the 2001 final and the Reds were rescued by an injury time equaliser from Steven Gerrard before beating West Ham on penalties in the 2006 final.
3. A close title race will distract from the Cup
With the top four unusually tight (the current 12-point gap between Arsenal and Liverpool represents the closest grouping of the Big Four at this stage of the season for over five years), a title race that goes right to the wire would see the Cup downgraded in priority.
4. The African Cup of Nations will have a detrimental impact...
In order to mount a serious challenge for the league, the Champions League and the Cup - as Arsenal, Chelsea, Man United and Liverpool all seek to do - you need a big squad, yet all but United will be affected by African Cup withdrawals this month. Liverpool will be without Sissoko, Arsenal lose Toure, Eboue and Song, while Chelsea miss Drogba, Essien, Obi Mikel and Kalou.
5. ...while resources will be stretched like never before.
With the Big Four all producing impressive results in the Champions League, this could be the season when all four qualify for the quarter-finals of the competition for the first time ever. The prospect of European glory will bump the FA Cup down the priority list even further.
6. They can't go on winning it forever
Since 1989, only two finals have guaranteed a Big Four winner (United/ Chelsea, 1993/94; Arsenal/ Chelsea, 2001/02), so with the final more likely to feature one Big Four team than two, eventually the streak has to end. The wealthy foreign businessmen now running non-Big Four clubs (at Man City, Villa, West Ham and Portsmouth) might see the Cup as a minimum return for their investments and plan accordingly. Other strong Premier League teams such as Everton, Blackburn and - occasionally - Tottenham can be under no illusion the FA Cup represents their limit of their ambitions for the foreseeable future . City, Villa and West Ham have already beaten Big Four sides this season, while Spurs conceded an equalizer to Liverpool in the last minute.
Comments (5)
Like Lewis, I want to agree but unfortunately I can't.
I think the only teams outside of the big four to win the FA Cup in the last twenty years (since Wimbledon won it) are Everton and Spurs - and they themselves can be classed as big teams.
The FA Cup always goes to a big team and usually it's Arsenal, United, Liverpool or Chelsea. This is despite them usually being in contention for the league and/or European honours so I'm afraid the Contrarian need to re-think reasons number 3 and 5.
Liverpool are effectively already out of the running for the Premiership so I can see them going all out for the FA Cup.
Reason 4 can also be dismissed. Man Utd are unaffected, Liverpool lose just one player who is not currenly getting his game, and while Arsenal and Chelsea will have at least 3 players away, they have big enough squads to cope. It's also worth remembering these African players will only be away for around 3 weeks.
Northern Lad | 05 January 2008
I believe today's results have just strengthened the big four's position to be honest.
Blackburn - out
Bolton - out
Birmingham - out
Everton - out
Sunderland - out
Spurs or Reading - out
Man City or West Ham - out
Northern Lad | 05 January 2008
There is some truth that if it comes to the crunch, the Big Four are prepared to forsake the FA Cup to pursue the EPL and Champions League titles.
But it is not going to be easy, the minnows will need luck and a huge dose of determination to send the Big Four on their way.
John
SoccerNet Live
JohnST | 07 January 2008
Very favourable draw for the 'Big Four' today. Booo!
Joe | 07 January 2008
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I want to agree with this, as it would make the competition so much more exciting, but I'm unsure. I think that there are teams who you mentioned such as Man City, Aston Villa, Portsmouth, and probably Tottenham given their recent form, that are candidates.. but I think the big four are always going to come out on top when they raise their game.
It'll be interesting to see how tings go this weekend.. West Ham V Man City should be a good game.
I do hope sides out of the big four go further though. Look at the Liverpool V West Ham final and how exciting that was, and then Man Utd V Chelsea last season (0-0 after 90 minutes).
Lewis Appleby | 04 January 2008