Televised FA Cup Preview: Southampton v Manchester United

Televised Match Previews / Richard Walker / 04 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Not much cup romance here as Richard Walker reckons it's only a question of by how many the World Champions are going to beat the Championship strugglers...

Well, what's he going to do? Because the scale of the defeat awaiting Southampton rather depends upon it.

With a Carling Cup semi-final first leg three days later, will Sir Alex Ferguson play his big guns in this one or will this be the day for a few up-and-comers to shine? I happen to think it'll be a bit of mix-and-match across both ties - which might just save the Saints from a real beating.

Both Southampton and Derby County are opponents the Premier League champions would expect to beat, regardless of their starting XI. That's not arrogance, it's just simply the way it is these days. Not much romance of the cup around here, I'm sorry.

St. Mary's Dutch boss Jan Poortvliet has been brought up on a diet of total football in his home country, you won't be surprised to learn. So come rain or shine, that's the way Southampton have played their football in the Championship this term.

Let's get this right, though, they're actually quite good at possession retention and off-the-ball movement. Just as well - they're going to need to be on Sunday afternoon in front of the Setanta Sports cameras. The champions are nothing if not ruthless if you keep giving them the ball back.

The host's troubles have been in the final third - as so often with decent passing sides. A lack of goals has meant an inability to kill games off, allowing the more uncouth style of some other clubs to prove more effective in the yielding of points.

Young striker David McGoldrick leads the goalscoring charts with eight; highly-rated left-footer Andrew Surman is next with five. Hardly stellar stuff. Add to this United's eight clean sheets from their last nine matches in domestic competitions and you can see where we're heading. I cannot believe a United clean sheet can be backed at [1.89]. Don't delay, get on.

Rounding off some pretty conclusive facts & figures, numbers even a stat-hater like me has to take notice of, we've got stuff like the Saints having won just one of their last 11 matches and United having won nine and drawn four of their most recent 13 games, only beaten once in 26 attempts.

Despite the potential for rotation from Fergie, the Match Odds reflect my feelings. United [1.33], The Draw [5.8] and Southampton [12.0]. For half a point more, I feel the clean sheet beats the Match Odds back for perceived value against a probable outcome. Alternatively, you might try United/United, [1.79] in the Half-Time/Full-Time list, or perhaps United to be winning at Half-Time, a [1.64] shot.

Let's assume it's a bit of a mixture of older and younger heads for the visitors. In that sense, Correct Scores I'd be interested in are 3-0 United [8.8], 2-0 United [6.6] and Any Unquoted which at [5.6] is a touch longer than I might have expected. By way of comparison, 2-1 Saints is a mere [50.0] to back!

Over or Under 2.5 goals is the question, of course, determined much by the general level of ruthlessness applied by the Red Devils. I can understand Overs being favourite at [1.8], with Unders out at [2.2] to back. 3-0 to United is a score I'm quite sweet on so that would (just) lead me to back Overs - but not with cast-iron confidence.

The First Goalscorer scenario again will be largely dictated by the starting line-up. There might be a few void bets struck on big names that end up not involved at all. I'd wait until near kick-off to plunge in here; but if Carlos Tevez is starting, I'd suggest getting on. He'll be around [6.0] to notch first and will be desperate to show his current employers that he's worthy of an extended full-time deal.

Much of this preview will be dead in the water with an early Southampton goal. Good luck to them if they manage it - however, I fear it could lead to a far more damaging final score.