Televised FA Cup Matches: Aston Villa v Gillingham

Televised Match Previews / Dan Fitch / 02 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

A probable starting place for Marlon Harewood is a good indication that Martin O'Neill isn't taking this match nearly as seriously as he would a Premiership clash but the gulf in quality between the two sides should see Villa go through anyway, says Dan "The Betting Man" Fitch.

There are some football managers who will always talk confidently about their team's chances and others who prefer to be more realistic about things. I'm betting that the Gillingham boss Mark Stimson falls into the latter camp.

Stimson's Gillingham side host Aston Villa in the FA Cup third round on Sunday and the former Tottenham midfielder is not talking up their chances of a giant killing. Quite to the contrary, Stimson has predicted that his team could easily lose by a 7 or 8 goal margin.

This may well be an effort on Stimson's part to take the pressure off his League 2 side. After all, it is likely that Martin O'Neill will take the opportunity to rest some of his first team players, especially considering that Villa are firmly in with a shout of Champions League qualification this season. That may result in a start for Marlon Harewood and let's face it, if he's leading the attack, there's more chance of me being named the 2009 Rear of the Year than Villa scoring 7 or 8 goals.

Aston Villa played their first competitive match this season back in July, when they began their Inter-Toto cup campaign and though they have a strong first team, the squad as a whole is not as strong as Martin O'Neill would desire.

Villa are now unbeaten in their last 9 Premier League games, but lost to Zilnia and Hamburg in the UEFA Cup when they fielded a weakened side. O'Neill's team also crashed out in the third round of the League Cup, when they lost 1-0 to QPR.

I don't want to pick on Marlon Harewood, but I'm going to nonetheless, on the basis that any game that he starts is by definition one where Martin O'Neill has decided that he can afford to field a weakened team. A quick look at the Marlonometer reveals that Villa have won just 1 of the 6 games that Harerwood has started this season.

Another Villa forward likely to get a start is 17 year old Nathan Delfouneso. The academy product has scored against both Zilnia and Hamburg in the UEFA Cup this season and like Ashley Young and Gabriel Agbonlahor, he boasts electric pace.

The first goalscorer market is not available on Betfair at the time of writing, but Delfouneso should be available at around [7.0], with Harewood likely to be [6.5]. For Gillingham, their top scorer Simeon Jackson has 11 goals this season and should be priced at around [12.0].

Gillingham are without a win in their last 4 games, but are sat comfortably in tenth position and are in touching distance of the playoff spots. The Gills have lost only once at home in the league, though they have been dumped out of the Carling Cup and the Johnstone's Paint Trophy at the first hurdle by Colchester United, who won 1-0 on both occasions at the Priestfield Stadium.

Mark Stimson faces a headache over the weekend, as he will have very few defenders available for the Villa match. Skipper Barry Fuller is suspended, as is Garry Richards. With the recent loan signing Leigh Mills having returned to Tottenham, it has been suggested that it may even be necessary for Stimson to bring in another player on loan before the match.

Going into a big game without a recognised right back is not the perfect situation, but the most important aspect of this match for Gillingham is the £250,000 they will receive for this televised clash. The perfect result for Gillingham would be a draw, earning them an even bigger payday in the replay at Villa Park.

Gillingham are [9.0], with the draw at [4.7] and Aston Villa the [1.47] favourites. Villa have not made it past the third round in the last 2 seasons, but only because they have been unfortunate enough to draw Manchester United on both occasions. They will expect to go through against Gillingham and can be backed at [2.14] to win half time/full time.

With the Gillingham manager claiming that his side could lose by a large margin and key personnel missing from their defence, the price of [1.92] for over 2.5 goals should be considered. Over 3.5 is [3.35], with over 4.5 at [7.2]. A Gillingham clean sheet can be backed at [7.6], with a Villa clean sheet available at a very generous [2.06].

Villa can be backed to win 1-0 at [7.2], with 2-0 at [7.4] and 3-0 at [11.5]. A shock 1-0 win for Gillingham is available at [24], with the 0-0 draw at [15.5] and the 1-1 draw at [9.6].