Televised Match Previews / Tareq Quiroz / 24 January 2009 / Leave a comment

Having watched these two sides closely in recent weeks, TQ is convinced that it is the away side who are carrying the momentum. Let's hope it's a match that ends up being all it promises to be but more importantly, let's make some money from it....

The fourth round of the FA Cup has thrown up some intriguing ties this year. Two things you are looking for in a draw are a potential giant killing or for two super powers to go head to head.

No doubt there are a few potential shocks in the draw but none of them really match up to the Merseyside derby. As is so often the case these two teams met in a league encounter less than a week ago. Liverpool will still be reeling from conceding that late equaliser whilst Everton will be confident that they saw nothing in that game that should frighten them.

Pre-match indication is that you will see very little change to either line-up for this cup clash. Everton will hopefully welcome back Yobo from injury, but I only expect him to make the bench. Fellaini is still suspended and he is obviously a big loss, but they coped without him on Monday so it is nothing new.

For Liverpool you can expect Steven Gerrard to play despite his recent court appearance. But knowing Benitez it would be a huge surprise if he didn't make at least a couple of changes from Monday's team. Javier Mascherano seems the most likely addition and it will be interesting to see if Keane keeps his place.

I would love to see a blood and thunder old fashioned cup tie but I fear it may be more like Monday's rather uninspiring encounter. There won't be much in it, that's for sure, but which way will it go?

I am a great believer in following momentum and in this case that is firmly with the blue side. They have been in super form in the league and they will also be the happier team after the game on Monday. Liverpool on the other hand have finally lost the lead in the league, have had a few dodgy results and Benitez appears to be losing the plot. Put all that into the melting pot and I am left with no option but to suggest laying Liverpool in the Match Odds at the current price of [1.77].

For long periods of the league clash, there looked to be no chance of either team finding the back of the net. Of the so called Big Four, Liverpool are definitely the least threatening in front of goal and the fact that Everton have often been forced to play without a striker means they are fairly toothless too. All in all I fail to see how we are going to get a flurry of goals in this game (cue an enthralling 3-3 classic)! It all points to backing Under 2.5 Goals at odds of [1.72] so why ignore it?

There is nothing like a local derby to really fire everyone up. The crowd loves it and the players seem to respond. I expect this to be a really fiery encounter. There is a lot at stake and with the away section of a cup crowd being bigger than normal, it will be a great atmosphere. The "Over 9 Points" in the Booking Odds market is certainly worth a look at though you can expect the price to be odds-on.

A new market on Betfair in recent weeks is the Bookings Match Bet. Essentially a market on which of the two teams will pick up the most bookings points. In this match I really can't see past Everton. They have by far the more aggresive players and I am sure they will pick up more yellows than Liverpool. Wait until 10 mins before KO and get on.

With the match being so tight, it is quite tempting to pile into 0-0 but something tells me there may just be the single goal. I wouldn't put anyone off backing both teams to win 1-0 as it is very likely that neither outfit will have the firepower to come back once behind. If you don't fancy that then my recommendation would be to back Everton to nick it 1-0 at odds of around [13.5].

With a bit of luck the neutrals will be in for a great Sunday afternoon's entertainment. It has all the ingredients, it's just a matter of whether masterchefs Benitez and Moyes can serve up a classic dish.