FA Cup Betting: Everton v Aston Villa

Televised Match Previews / Richard Walker / 14 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Richard Walker tells us why this is the most intriguing of the weekend's FA Cup ties and how despite a draw and subsequent replay being the last thing either manager wants, it's actually the most likely outcome. Best bet: back the draw @ [3.3].

The pick of the four televised ties this weekend for me. A clash of two clubs who could sacrifice FA Cup progress for other interests but won't because they're both managed by outstanding individuals who approach every match like it's life-or-death to win.

Everton boss David Moyes, the most under-rated manager in the Premier League, hosts an Aston Villa side managed by Martin O'Neill, who's rightly getting the credit he deserves for this season's Big Four-busting efforts.

When credentials are this closely matched - both in terms of league position, current form and my own general feeling about the clubs' well-being - then The Draw it has to be for me, at [3.3]. The Match Odds complete with Everton at [2.54] and Villa [3.2].

Looking at the team news, both sides have their share of absentees, some of them key. For Villa, I don't suppose O'Neill will mind too much that Gareth Barry's suspension for five yellow cards is invoked for this tie, while there are doubts over England squad members Luke Young and Emile Heskey.

Everton's on-loan - and hot debutant - striker Jo is cup-tied. Silly-haired midfielder Marouane Fellaini has a back problem and will miss out. This dearth of attacking options is nothing new to Moyes who, after falling out with Victor Anichebe and watching Louis Saha crawl back to fitness, will most likely employ Tim Cahill at the top of a formation which does allow the wide players to quickly support a lone striker.

The visitor's Ashley Young is back at the scene of the crime, so to speak, where his second goal of the game stole all three league points from Goodison earlier this term. Take him to be at the heart of the action again with a goal - he's a shade over-priced for me the in the To Score market at [4.25] to back. If you prefer something a little shorter, Gabby Agbonlahor at [3.15] and aforementioned Cahill at [2.96] are each side's leading protagonists.

The one fear I have about recommending a draw is it's the result both managers least want, especially Villa who are back into UEFA Cup duty this midweek. Yet when it's not wanted, it's more likely to happen - that's my take on it!

Goals-wise, Everton's formation of late doesn't really allow for goal fests so I'll have to concede to the market on this one and suggest "unders" at [1.69] looks good. Overs at [2.42] might look an interesting investment if there's an early goal...but I can't see that either. In fact, the [2.94] about Under 1.5 goals should merit at least your passing interest.

The Correct Score favourite 1-1 [7.6] is where my chips will be placed for this one. Having favoured a draw and Under 2.5 goals, my only other option is 0-0 at [10.0] but I do think there'll be at least one goal. Covering with 1-0 Villa at [8.4] might be the way I'd go. Other choices here include Everton 1-0 ([8.4]), Everton 2-0 ([13.0]) or a repeat of earlier this campaign Villa 3-2 at [60.0]!

If you're not too sure about 90 minutes, how about Half-Time Correct Score? 0-0 is, without exception, the jolly here, however the [5.6] about Villa leading 1-0 at the break looks tempting.

I fancy Setanta have the more intriguing of Sunday's two ties. We'll see.