Televised Match Previews / Richard Walker / 14 February 2009 /

Despite playing in different leagues, Man Utd and Derby County clash for the third time this season and the favourites should take this one in a high-scoring encounter, says Richard Walker. Best bet: over 2.5 goals @ [2.06].

Not normally one to advocate long odds-on wagering but if you're into that sort of thing I think the [1.44] about Manchester United prevailing at Pride Park this Sunday afternoon would be a cert to 'get on'. Chelsea opened shorter at Watford and that doesn't add up to me.

Still, on we go looking at the third match of this season between the Rams and the Red Devils. You'll recall that County edged the Carling Cup semi-final first leg 1-0 at home before having that aggregate lead wiped away at Old Trafford with a 4-2 defeat.

While I can see Derby's current confidence (they've won three straight under new boss Nigel Clough) helping them to find at least one goal, it's United for me after a high-scoring encounter. That's my assessment. Without record-breaking Edwin van der Sar, United don't look quite so rock-solid and I see value in saying 'No' to a United clean sheet at [1.93] to back.

Over 2.5 goals is, in my eyes, over-priced at [2.04] and you really shouldn't hesitate in garnering over Evens to see at least three goals (well, let's hope we get to see them all!) on ITV from 4.30 on Sunday. Unders isn't a million miles away at [1.94] but is for those who can't see the attacking tie that I predict. I never reckon you get amazing value in the 2.5 goals list - though conceding it's a great area of attack for heavy bettors - so I tend to glance at the 1.5 and 3.5 goals options. For this tie, Over 3.5 goals, a [3.45] chance, should at least get you thinking. Perhaps you might make that an in-play call. If you've not tried betting in running, then log on and watch just how an early goal shifts a myriad of match markets...it's interesting stuff.

For the record, the Match Odds are completed with The Draw at [4.8] and [9.8] about a County success. I happen to think this might be put to bed before the break, so check out the HT/FT options where Man Utd/Man Utd rates a [2.18] - something of an antidote, perhaps, to backing odds-on in the Match market? Draw/Man Utd [4.7], Derby/Man Utd [30.0] are among the other options which also include Man Utd/Derby at [110.0]!

3-1 to United feels about the right scoreline to me, a [14.5] chance, but in case it doesn't get quite that exciting, I will be covering the [10.0] on offer around 2-1 to the Red Devils. If you disagree, and reckon Clough will play it super-cagey in the hope of springing a shock or at least gleaning a replay, then 0-0 at [16.0] or 1-1 at [9.2] might be your preferred route. Rams' fans can join in the fun by letting heart rule head with a 2-1 home win, [38.0] to back.

Who's going to score these goals then? Carlos Tevez, backable at [2.18] To Score, is my chief choice although there are some value plays elsewhere. Derby's midfield jinkster Kris Commons at [6.2] to bag what I see as a consolation goal merits a second glance. The usual suspects are priced accordingly; Dimitar Berbatov and Cristiano Ronaldo hovering around Evens To Score, [5.4] and [4.8] respectively in the First Goalscorer list.

So a done deal, this one? In my opinion yes - but it's yours that counts remember!

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