FA Cup 3rd Round Betting: Bristol City v Portsmouth

Televised Match Previews / Mike Norman / 13 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Portsmouth travel to Bristol City for their FA Cup 3rd round replay and are not in the best of form, to put it mildly. Will the Premiership side show their higher pedigree or are we about to lose another top-flight team from the world's oldest Cup competition, asks "Mystical" Mike Norman.

This FA Cup third round replay has got shock written all over it - Portsmouth might actually win a game! The Match Odds market has Bristol City available to back at [2.8], Portsmouth at [2.82], and The Draw at [3.45].

Actually, forget that Portsmouth win. I can't find any solid reasons to oppose City in front of their home supporters at a packed, and no doubt loud, Ashton Gate tonight. Gary Johnson's men are starting to string a bit of form together, winning their two previous Championship games and scoring five goals in the process. Portsmouth on the other hand are in awful form, losing four straight Premiership games and being without a win in any competition since November.

Those wins for Bristol City have been aided by very early goals (first minute against Watford, second minute against Crystal Palace) so look for them to start off in similar fashion against Pompey tonight. In the First Goal market you can back 0-10 Minutes at [5.6], 11-20 Minutes at [5.8] and 21-30 Minutes at [6.6]. And remember, it doesn't have to be a goal from the home side to collect in this market, it can be a goal from either team.

An early goal for City will also increase their chances of leading at Half Time/ Full Time - Bristol City/Bristol City is available to back at a tasty looking [5.2] in this particular market. Portsmouth/Portsmouth is similarly priced at [5.0], whilst Draw/Bristol City and Draw/Portsmouth are both on offer at [7.4].

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals market is a hard one to weigh up. 60% of Portsmouth's Premiership games have resulted in Over 2.5 Goals being scored, whereas for City it's just 42% of their Championship games. This still gives us an average of 51% between the two sides so, mathematically speaking, the [2.32] about Over 2.5 Goals tonight is slightly overpriced - you can back Under 2.5 Goals at [1.75].

It's worth pointing out however that the first game between these two sides ended goalless with very few chances being created. A repeat of that 0-0 scoreline can be backed at [10.0] in the Correct Score market - 1-0 to City ([9.6]) and 1-0 to Portsmouth ([9.2]) are other low-scoring outcomes you might want to consider.

Portsmouth manager Tony Adams is expected to be without influential midfielder Sean Davis for tonight's game as he is suffering from a stomach virus. With Lassan Diarra now a Real Madrid player, and Papa Bouba Diop also sidelined tonight then it's clear to see Adams has a few problems in midfield. Bristol City are set to welcome back a trio of first-team regulars in the shape of defender Jamie McCombe, midfielder Michael McIndoe and striker Nicky Maynard.

For a First Goalscorer, City striker Peter Styvar ([8.6]) and Pompey forward Peter Crouch ([6.8]) are likely to be popular choices, but for a sporting bet back accomplished midfielder Lee Johnson (son of City manager Gary) at around [24.0].