FA Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 26 March 2012 / 1

These are two of the most evenly-matched teams in the country and splitting them isn't easy, so bet accordingly. But if it goes all the way to penalties, there's only one team to side with, says Jamie Pacheco.

Match Odds

There's not much to choose between these two whichever way you look at it. I'm not sure who I'd take between Martin O'Neill and David Moyes as a manager. They're tied on points in the league table; they have squads of similar strength; they both won at the weekend; and they drew 1-1 on both occasions they've played this season, the latest of which was at Goodison Park ten days ago. The same match that means we've got a replay here. Furthermore, Opta tell us that it's three draws from the last four between these two.

But a further stat from our number crunching-friends sticks out like a sore thumb. Everton have gone on an amazing run of 16 matches without tasting defeat against their north-eastern opponents. Even if we consider that O'Neill is probably a better manager than anyone else Sunderland had in charge during that time and that this probably a stronger XI than they've had throughout most of that period, that record against Tuesday night's opponents must be at the back of hosts' minds somewhere.

Moyes' decision to play a weakened side against Liverpool to spare his players for their big FA Cup tie four days later backfired in more ways than one. Not only did he lose that match convincingly but the same players who had been given the night off looked rusty rather than rested for the FA Cup game.

No repeat of that this time round. The Scot picked his just about his best possible team for Saturday's trip to Swansea and his reward was a 2-0 win over a side who had won their last four league matches, which included the scalp of then league leaders Manchester City. I'd expect a very similar team to start again on Tuesday night, though Marouane Felliani might get the nod over Darren Gibson in the heart of midfield, just to add a little more bite. Steven Pienaar is unavailable after turning out for Spurs earlier in the competition and he'll be missed but the in-form Leon Osman will be around to provide Tim Cahill and Nikica Jelavic some good service from out wide.

Lee Cattermole is back from suspension after his sending-off at home to Newcastle for showing a little too much bite and an equal amount of stupidity and lack of self-restraint. I'm not too sure he's masive boost to the side though. It's all well and good talking about passion and commitment but no player is any good to anyone if they keep getting themselves sent off.

Whoever Moyes decides to play at right-back (either Tony Hibbert or Phil Neville) would be well-advised to drink a nice mug of camomile tea before they go to bed or take something else to help them sleep. The prospect of having to contain the impressive James McClean doesn't make for a restful night's sleep.

Still, I can't ignore that stat that says Sunderland haven't found a way to beat Everton over the years so a lay of the hosts at [2.5] is the bet.

Method of Victory

With the draw such a strong runner in terms of the outcome after 90 minutes, it may pay to speculate as to what might happen if this game does go beyond 90 minutes. The team who is distinctly fitter or has superior options on the bench has the better chance of winning it.

But once again, we find it hard to split these two teams when it comes to that either, so I'm not sure we'd find a winner after even 120 minutes. Onto penalties we go and here it's Everton who are clearly the stronger of the two. In 2009 they knocked Manchester United out of the FA on penalties at Wembley and last year they knocked out Chelsea in the same competition at Stamford Bridge, again on penalties. Sunderland's memories of shoot-outs aren't so great. In 2009 they went out of the Carling Cup by this method against Aston Villa and in 2004 they fell at the final hurdle when up against Ian Dowie's Crystal Palace for the right to be promoted to the Premier League. Tim Howard's experience of handling the occasion may be the difference if this match does indeed go the distance. Everton are [14.0] to win on penalties.

First Goalscorer

Gone are the days when Tim Cahill seemed to score every other week with a trademark header after a late run into the box. His return of just one goal from almost 30 starts in the league is proof of that. But he certainly likes playing Sunderland and has scored three times against them in his last five matches, including the equaliser ten days ago in this same fixture. He'll be around [10.0] to open the scoring which is a far better price than we would have got a few years back and it's worth taking the chance he can come up with the goods when it most matters.

Best Bet

Lay Sunderland @ [2.5]

Recommended Bet

Back Everton to win on penalties in the Qualifying Method market

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1. Anonymous | 27 March 2012

   Everton fan by any chance Jamie?

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