FA Cup / Ed Nicholson / 05 March 2009 /

As ever, Ed Nicholson goes against the grain this week as he predicts goals in the FA Cup quarter-finals. Best Bet: 2pts Over 2.5 goals Fuham v Man Utd @ [2.40].

It's the quarter-final stage of the FA Cup and that usually means low scoring matches. I wouldn't be surprised if all four of this weekend's games were under 2.5 goal affairs - three of last years were, with the exception being the League Two v Premier league encounter. But the Betfair under 2.5 goal market is heavily skewed towards the unders as you might expect - so the value must lie, as it so often does, in going against the crowd.

Fulham v Man Utd

Man United have won plenty of their matches, in every competition, by less than 2.5 goals this season - and they are past masters at doing just enough. But recent league head to heads between these two at Craven Cottage suggest that this may be an over 2.5 goal affair.

The last three Premier League matches in West London between these sides have resulted in a 0-3, 1-2 and 2-3, while the three prior to that were all 1-1's. And both times these two have met in the FA Cup since 2000 the result has been 2-1 to United (one at Craven Cottage, one at Old Trafford)

Fulham, for their part, have been blessed with a relatively easy run of games in this year's competition - although in each round they have had to travel to play their game. Against Swansea in the last round, they showed they can be outplayed by a better footballing club. The Swans played very well in both games and United will fancy their chances of beating Roy Hodgson's side. They should outscore them, but for the sake of the bet, I am hoping Fulham score one goal - and ideally the first - as that will make United go forward and attack for at least two, as they were forced to do against Newcastle this week.

A major positive for those looking to go high on goals in any market on Saturday, was the performance of Wayne Rooney on Wednesday night. As I have stated previously, he is a player who scores goals in clusters, and if allowed to take his place against Fulham, can score again.

Only four sides in the Premier League have scored more goals at home than Fulham and with Andrew Johnson, Clint Dempsey and now Bobby Zamora (another streaky goal scorer) in form I expect Fulham to score.

Fulham lost to a last gasp Hull winner at home on Wednesday night, but they dominated the game and had nine SOTs - but the good news is that all three attack-minded players came through unscathed - and Simon Davies continues to play well.

Recommendation:

Both sides have goalscorers in good form, the head to heads record suggest we will see at least a 1-1, while the prices make a bet on the overs attractive. The only concern is that United will just do enough given they have an important tie against Inter Milan next week.

2pts Over 2.5 goals Fuham v Man Utd @ [2.40]
0.2pt 1-1 Fulham v Man Utd @ [7.2]

Arsenal v Burnley

Despite not supporting Arsenal, I have been to a few games at the Emirates this season, and I have made three observations about their games when playing at home.

Firstly, and a well expressed view, is that the Gunners have trouble at overcoming big, physical, talented sides who, to steal a Jose Mourinho expression, "park the bus" in front of their goal.

Secondly, and another well expressed view, a vast majority of current Arsenal players tend not to spot that penetrating final pass. Instead they turn around and come back through midfield passing the ball and looking good without actually achieving anything.

Thirdly, Robin van Persie and Eduardo are class players able to change a game with a pass or a strike, and make a huge difference to the way the Arsenal perform.

Robin van Persie didn't start Tuesday's game against West Brom and must be itching to get onto the pitch from the start - especially as his team mate Nicklas Bendtner scored twice in that game. The Great Dane looks like a confidence player, and that has been confirmed to me by an ex-Arsenal colleague of his. So, even if Eduardo doesn't make it (I think he will), goals should rain at the Emirates against Burnley.

Burnley have already beaten Arsenal this year - but that was at Turf Moor in the Carling Cup against the Wenger Boys - this will be a much sterner test and I expect Arsenal to quickly put them to the sword.

Burnley like to get the ball down on the ground and that may result in a high scoring game. I can see Arsenal scoring at least two, and Burnley are capable of netting as well - they only failed to score twice on the road in their last ten competitive matches, and in total have netted 23 times away from home; only three sides in the Championship have better goal scoring records on the road - while they have conceded no less than 29 times in 18 matches away from home - that's the fourth worst defensive record on the road.

Recommendation:

2pts Over 2.5 goals Arsenal v Burnley @ [2.18]

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