FA Cup Betting: Histon and Forest Green can do Non-League football proud this weekend

Non-Televised Match Previews / Gary Boswell / 01 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Gary Boswell has foregone his Xmas pud and totally ignored Hogmanay in the pursuit of form study to identity the way to make his profit in the Betfair FA Cup challenge.

A profit in every round utilising my watchwords of opposing the favs and championing the doyens of Non-League football. Betfair are donating to my favourite charity if I go all the way to Wembley. Three rounds under the belt already and the tricky third round to hurdle this weekend.

There's an interesting odds yardstick from last year in weighing up the value on offer about the remaining non-league clubs in this year's third round. Havant and Waterlooville were generally available at [26.0] to win at Anfield last season and the two non-league teams this year to be facing Premiership opposition are arguably on offer at better value prices.

If you accept that Barrow are a seriously stronger side as a BSP team than Havant were as a BSS team and that Middlesborough are not in the Liverpool class bracket, then a generally available [21.0] on Barrow to win (although this was as low as [18.0] when I last looked on Betfair) can be considered better value than you were offered last year.

Likewise, Blyth Spartans at [15.0] to beat Sam Allardyce's Blackburn Rovers at Croft Park where they have already dumped out Shrewsbury and Bournemouth, and are hard to beat in the league, might also look generous compared to last year.

Can we really expect either side to achieve what would go down as the biggest cup upset since Hereford ousted Newcastle and Sutton lowered the colours of Coventry who were 6th in the football pyramid at the time?

Sadly, all my hard study has not been able to come up with optimism on these two. I'd like to think that Jason Walker and Carlos Logan can fashion the class to notch up a goal at the Riverside but asking Paul Jones and Steve McNulty to hold firm may be a step too far. A fan of Jones and McNulty I am but also aware that their strength is in physical and aerial defence.

Maybe they'll be able to intimidate the Borough strikers into submission but more likely for me is that the passing class and pace of the Borough side as a whole will seriously expose the Barrow defensive duo. Barrow managers Dave Bayliss and Darren Sheridan will know the score and perhaps have a game plan built around putting a spoke in the Borough equilibrium but it's a tall order all things considered and I fear the record 7000 away fans (and that's a Riverside record for any team visiting the North East!) will likely be on a hiding to defeat.

Blyth's chance lies in a bit of luck for those noble youngsters Ged Dalton and Shaun Reay up front and maybe more goalkeeping heroics from Mark Bell but they also have a mountain to climb class wise and a 0-0 draw would be my best hope for The Spartans. Not beyond possibility that.

The non-league sides facing Championship opposition are a totally different kettle of fish. All-conquering Histon are a whopping [6.0] against a Swansea side that was humbled in the FA Cup last season and who have a serious disposition toward drawing in the league this year. Arguably Swansea are only a few notches further up the footballing pyramid than Leeds United and therefore well within Histon's compass. Are you keen to take [1.66] about a Swans side away from home that has drawn 13 of its 25 league games this season?

The Boz's strategy to land a third round profit starts here with a lay on Swansea and I'm keen to couple it with the other two ties where the Championship side looks a little vulnerable - namely Coventry City, [1.4] at home to Mark Yates' Kidderminster Harriers and managerless Derby County at [1.7] away at the New Lawn against Jim Harvey's famed Cup warriors Forest Green Rovers. Derby have only scored 11 goals on the road this year and won just 2 from 13 which has to give Rovers fans serious hope.

Laying all three league sides needs shorter odds on a graded stakes plan (but that is always a possibility on the Betfair trading exchange) so that I will narrow to just two for the sake of my Betfair challenge and lay them to level stakes. Of the three to be omitted, Coventry at home looks perhaps third in my list and I'll therefore plump for Forest Green and Histon to carry The Flag for The Boz profit whilst seriously fancying all three of having a real live chance of actually landing the win on their day.

There is already a non-league side guaranteed in Round Four courtesy of the Kettering-Eastwood fixture where the Badgers are an interesting [6.0] to win. I watched them lose 3-0 at Kendal Town in the Unibond Premier earlier in the season and am still scratching my thinning hair trying to work out how on earth they beat Wycombe who of course would rate a much stronger opponent than Kettering.

That's the FA Cup for you and I don't rule out Torquay of having a laugh at the expense of sorely intimidated Blackpool either in the day's other fixture involving non-league teams. My betting is conservative but I won't be at all surprised to see a record three or four Non-League sides still in the hat when the draw for the Fourth Round takes place.

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS IN HIS BETFAIR FA CUP CHALLENGE:

1pt LAY on Swansea at [1.66] against Histon
1pt LAY on Derby County at [1.7] against Forest Green Rovers