FA Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 06 January 2012 / 1

Gone are the days when everyone wanted to win the FA Cup. With financial considerations very much the name of the game in 2012, the teams to back are those who are in it to win it, says Jamie Pacheco.

If I was writing this preview some 15 or 20 years ago my main considerations would be how good the teams were going into the competition and what their pedigree in it was like over the past few years. The issue of how much they wanted to win it wasn't a consideration.

Fast forward to 2012 and that's simply not the case. Staying in the Premier League, being promoted to the Premier League, qualifying for the Champions League or actually winning the division you're in are all far more important. True, football clubs have larger squads than they did back then so are able to chop and change more but then again the FA Cup is very rarely won by a side fielding anything but their best XI throughout each round. As for the players, in an era when virtually every match in the country in the top three divisions is either televised somewhere or other or streamed over the internet, a day in front of the TV cameras isn't quite what it used to be.

And whereas a passage into the next round may mean a huge payday for clubs outside the Premier League, to those in the top flight it doesn't bring particularly significant rewards. So one of the main considerations of this preview will be which teams actually want to win it.

This might come across as elitist but we're going to start by writing off anyone outside the Premier League. Admittedly there were two instances of Championship clubs making the final in the last 10 years (Millwall 2004, Cardiff 2008) but that's not quite enough to include any in our portfolio.

We know that one of Manchester City or Manchester United will fall at the first hurdle because they're playing each other and at odds of [11.0] there will be those considering the price on United huge value. Earn a replay, beat City at home and they'll be into about [5.0] to win it. That's fine but do you really want to be showing faith in a side who lost their last two league matches and are away to the holders, who just happened to beat them 6-1 at Old Trafford earlier in the season? No, me neither. City on the other hand look a bet at [7.8]. They won the Cup last year when a top four finish in the league was their focus for the season so there's no reason why they can't do it again just because actually winning the league has become their priority. There's the 'inconvenience' of the Europa League of course but I suspect Mancini will be taking this competition more seriously than that one and therefore fielding his best players on the domestic front.

Liverpool will be going out to win this but from what I've seen of their performances so far in the league, they represent poor value at [8.8], especially when you consider they haven't made a quarter-final since winning it back in 2005-6. The same question of inconsistency goes for Arsenal ([9.6]), who are battling it out to retain their status as a top four club in the league whilst still involved in the Champions League. Robin van Persie may be rested in the early stages of this competition and without going as far as suggesting they're a one-man-team, I can't remember the last time they won a match without him.

Portsmouth may have made the final in 2009-10 despite being relegated but that run must be put into context: the revenue generated from progressing to the next round was pretty much saving the club from extinction on a weekly basis. Already all but relegated, the FA Cup was everything to them. So we're going to exclude clubs who have a real danger of being relegated on the grounds they're not in it to win it and that means none of Blackburn, Wigan, Wolves, QPR and Bolton are to be considered. Everton look a poor team this year and have too small a squad to cope with a second competition, a similar lack of depth applies to Swansea and Newcastle. The latter have a tricky tie first up against Blackburn and in the process will have to learn very quickly how to cope without the superb Demba Ba - unquestionably the value buy of the season.

We like Sunderland, though. Sitting pretty in 10th after Martin O'Neill's superb start at the Stadium Of light they're in that position of not being in contention for a European place and not being threatened with relegation either. They have a big squad, have shown they can perform in the big games and will be making a good run their top priority. An away trip to Peterborough first up won't be a walk in the park but they should make it through, even if it takes a replay. Finally, there's Tottenham. Harry Redknapp famously won the competition back in 2008 with Portsmouth and they'll certainly be extremely tough to beat at home but at [8.6] their price sounds about right rather than offering much value. After all, they haven't made an FA Cup final in 20 years.

Back Manchester City to win the FA Cup @ [7.8]
Back Sunderland to win the FA Cup @ [32.0]

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1. Anonymous | 06 January 2012

   Same could be said of Stoke City as well

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