David James to keep Man Utd at bay...till half-time

FA Cup / Editor / 07 March 2008 / Leave a Comment

Oliver Bellwood talks us through the betting as Portsmouth have the unenviable task of a Saturday lunchtime trip to Old Trafford in the FA Cup

Much has been made of the promising batch of young managers emerging from Manchester United's period of early Premier League dominance. It's quite a list, from Strachan to Roy Keane via Paul Ince and Steve Bruce (OK, maybe not Steve Bruce). However, if the likes of Mark Hughes and friends are getting impatient waiting for the day the Godfather eventually kicks his last boot, it's a case of "sorry guys, you'll have to sit tight and tweak your CVs a little while longer"

That's because Sir Alex Ferguson revealed this week he has lost none of his zeal for the job and intends to keep driving the Man Utd juggernaut until he does. In his words, "I'm getting beyond the future now. I still have a lot of passion. I'm 66 now - maybe three years more, then I'll finish."

Sir Alex's statement of intent won't just be disheartening for the "next Man Utd manager in waiting" club. I'm sure Arsene Wenger and the other Premier League managers would find their day jobs much easier if they didn't feel the metaphorical hairdryer breathing down the back of their necks throughout each Premier League season. If I wasn't a Newcastle fan I'd write a Keegan joke now. But I am, so you'll have to make your own up at home.

Tasked with pitting his not inconsiderable wits against Sir Alex this weekend is Harry Redknapp, a man with an altogether different approach to football management, although to say he has never lost his temper isn't totally true.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MrWS0bZqsY&feature=related

You may be surprised to learn that Portsmouth's FA Cup record against Manchester United reads: Played 8 Won 2 Drawn 3 Lost 3, but I have to qualify that by saying the last time Portsmouth knocked the Red Devils out was 1934! If anyone reading this article can remember that game, post a comment and I'll send you a prize (on inspection of your birth certificate, of course).

There are no prizes for those of you who remember last year's fourth round fixture at Old Trafford, but that doesn't mean that watching that game can't earn you money. If you'll recall, a red hot Man Utd dominated the game and eventually vanquished a brave Pompey rearguard with two goals from Rooney, who was in magnificent form. Remember that sentence; I'll be using it later.

As for this year's game, and more specifically the Betfair markets, I'm not overly enthused I must say. At the time of press, Man Utd are [1.35] in the match odds market with Pompey [12.5] and the draw at [5.4]. I have to say that I think that's too short for Ferguson's men but am I brave enough to lay them? The answer is an emphatic no. I am a cowardly bettor, and that means I have to dig a little deeper into the more intricate Betfair markets and see if I can find a bit of value that doesn't carry quite as much risk.

Let's go back to that sentence then: the key words for me are "brave Pompey rearguard". Portsmouth under Harry Redknapp are extremely well organised and have experience to burn at the back. If anything, they have improved in this area since that game at Old Trafford. David James, Sol Campbell and Sylvain Distin, ably assisted by Hermann Hreidarsson and Glen Johnson have given Portsmouth a great away record in this year's Premier League and have as good a chance as anyone at keeping Man Utd's superstars at bay... but whether they can do it for the whole game is a huge call.

With that in mind I'll be looking at some half-time bets. The half-time draw is [2.8] and under 1.5 goals at half-time is [1.58], both of which represent decent value for me; probably the former slightly more than the latter. Sometimes these cup games can start slowly though, particularly after the high emotion of a Champions League knock out tie and Fergy will inevitably change a couple of faces for this game.

Here's another one to look out for as a final thought. A Man Utd clean sheet is currently [1.93]. Given that Jermain Defoe is cup-tied and Benjani has joined the blue Manchester team, Portsmouth will rely heavily on Kanu for goals and I can't see them setting up with an attacking formation. Man Utd's defence should cope easily.