Liverpool v Brighton: Suarez to play as Reds target Cup double

FA Cup / Frank Gregan / 18 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Liverpool's controversial striker be celebrating on Sunday?

"Opta point out that Steven Gerrard has bagged eight goals in his last 11 FA Cup ties."

Kenny Dalglish knows that the FA Cup represents a decent chance of silverware for Liverpool so he will be taking this tie seriously, says Frank Gregan. But can Brighton take the Reds to a replay?

Liverpool v Brighton, KO 16:30, Sunday live on ESPN, Match Odds: Liverpool [1.27] Brighton [6.0] The Draw [4.1]

Having conquered Manchester United in the fourth round, Liverpool would have been happy with a home draw against anyone. Kenny Dalglish, whilst affording the opposition respect, must have been delighted to be pitted against a Championship club. Gus Poyet's men know that they can beat Premier League opposition, having dumped Newcastle out of the competition in the last round, but, although the Geordies are above Liverpool in the league, this will be a much harder task because of the venue.

Luis Suarez has the chance to put a controversial week, which has been discussed all over the world, behind him and play his first FA Cup game for the Reds. If Liverpool make it all the way then Suarez could become only the second Uruguayan to play in a FA Cup final after Brighton boss Gus Poyet.

Having already secured a place in the Carling Cup final, Kenny Dalglish knows that this competition represents another excellent chance of silverware for his club and he is guaranteed to field a very strong side. Should Jamie Carragher get on the field he will equal Ian Callaghan's record of playing 210 cup games for the Reds.

Brighton will have to do without the services of the suspended Matt Sparrow whilst both Tommy Elphick and Gary Dicker miss out with injuries.

Match Odds: Liverpool [1.27] Brighton [14] The Draw [6.4]

Liverpool are one of only two unbeaten sides at home in the Premier League (leaders Manchester City are the other) but that is a very misleading statistic as their home form has been nowhere near as good as the Anfield faithful would have liked. They have only won 33% of their home games and have dropped 16 points out of the 36 available. Conversely, Brighton's away form has been decent, they've won six and drawn three of their sixteen games on the road.

Opta points out that these two sides have been drawn together four times in the FA Cup with two wins each but both Liverpool's victories were achieved after drawing at home and winning away on the South coast in a replay. This suggests that laying Liverpool at very short odds could be the sensible option.

Under/Over 2.5 goals

Liverpool have not been prolific at home this season averaging only 1.17 goals per game whilst Brighton have managed to score less than a goal per game away from home against Championship defences. That suggests that the market may be a little out of synch with 'unders' priced at [2.4] and 'overs' at [1.7]. That's because most Betfairians expect the difference in class to tell and the men from Anfield to assert in style but once again bucking the trend and backing 'unders' at the bigger price is viable.

To Score

Even if you decide to lay Liverpool it's difficult to see them failing to score. Luis Suarez, Craig Bellamy, Dirk Kuyt and Andy Carroll will all be short prices to find the net at any time during the game. This is one of the occassions were it could prove fruitful to follow Opta who point out that Steven Gerrard has bagged eight goals in his last 11 FA Cup ties. Odds in the region of [2.4] should be available on the Anfield legend scoring.

Liverpool win both halves

If you're not convinced that Brighton can stand tall at Anfield, but don't like the short price that Liverpool are to win, then this is the market for you. Odds of [2.7] should be available on the men from Anfield winning both halves.

Best Bet: Back Steven Gerrard to score at [2.4]
Other Recommendation: Back under 2.5 goals at [2.4]