Lee Dixon: Robin van Persie to score but replay beckons

FA Cup / Lee Dixon / 17 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Robin van Persie should get on the scoresheet at the Stadium of Light

"But it’s all different now and if Arsene was given the option of a replay he’d certainly take it and be confident he could do the business back at the Emirates. I’ve said already there wasn’t much to choose between these two teams last week and I think a draw ([3.55] )is what we’ll get."

Lee Dixon wonders wherether this Arsenal squad is mentally strong enough to recover from that drubbing at the San Siro. This is a chance to right those wrongs of Wednesday night but a draw and a replay is the most likely outcome.

Wednesday night was nothing short of disastrous for Arsenal on a number of levels.

The most obvious is that they're almost certain to crash out of the Champions League. I wrote in my preview of that match that one goal deficits can be overcome but that two goal ones are very hard to recover from. Four? Arsenal need nothing short of a minor miracle. When I was in the Arsenal dressing room many moons ago we also went through defeats like the one the Gunners suffered in the San Siro. But when they happened I looked at the guys around me and I could see in their eyes that the next match was a chance to set the record straight. We may not have gone on to win the match but it certainly wasn't due to a lack of self-belief or for the want of trying. Does this current Arsenal squad have that same mental strength that will allow them to recover from a drubbing like that? Do they have enough natural leaders in the team? That's what we're about to find out.

Because the second problem here is that this is beginning to look like another season without silverware. The Premier League is an impossible task now and they're out of the Carling Cup. Yes, qualifying for next year's Champions League is the priority, financially at least, but the FA Cup is the only competition left where they can win something. That makes Saturday's game huge.

Match Odds

It's difficult to try and explain just what it is that Martin O'Neill does that makes things happen at a football club. I've never been managed by him nor have I sat in the dressing room with him in charge but I have worked with him on television and I can vouch for the fact he's got an infectious personality. I can see why players would jump through hoops for him. I know I would. He's a fantastic motivator and has it in him to be both the guy who gives you a rollicking you won't forget and the guy who puts an arm round your shoulder when that's what you need. The secret is knowing when to do one over the other.

This Sunderland side is a good one at the moment and you need to play well to beat them. This match is a repeat of last Saturday's when they played in the league and, though Arsenal came on top in that one, it was a late, late goal and the draw would probably have been the fairest result.

If the Champions League result had been different Arsene Wenger may have viewed this as a match that he wanted to win but one that, if he didn't manage to do that, he'd almost rather lose than draw. Fixture pile-ups are the last thing you need when you've got a big European game coming up, in addition to the usual league commitments. But it's all different now and if Arsene was given the option of a replay he'd certainly take it and be confident he could do the business back at the Emirates. I've said already there wasn't much to choose between these two teams last week and I think a draw ([3.55] )is what we'll get.

Both teams to score

My idea of a scoreline would be 1-1 or 2-2 and I wouldn't put anyone off backing those two scores. But we don't want to put all our eggs in one basket if it doesn't end in a draw and the more sensible approach would be to back both teams to score at [1.7]. It's been ages since Sunderland haven't scored at home and Arsenal's failure to do so at the San Siro was only the second time in ten matches it happened to them.

To Score

I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few goals in this so I'm going to push the boat out a little bit more than usual and go for two. The first is the obvious one: Robin van Persie. He didn't score at the San Siro but he had no service all match and was tightly marked so I can hardly blame him. With all due respect to Sunderland I'm not sure they'll give him as tough a time as Milan's defence did and at [2.2] he's my first choice.

My second is Stephane Sessegnon. He had a quiet game against Arsenal last Saturday but he looked a bit jaded from his midweek exertions against Middlesbrough in the Cup replay. He's been one of the players who has most benefited from O'Neill's arrival and I think he'll get on the scoresheet here at [4.0].

2 pts Back the draw at [3.55]
4 pts Back both teams to score @ [1.7]
2 pts Back Robin van Persie to score @ [2.2]
1 pt back Stephane Sessegnon top score @ [4.0]

Michael Cox says:

Martin O'Neill tells his side to defend very deep against big clubs - last week against Arsenal, Sunderland barely got out of their own half. In the repeat fixture, Arsene Wenger's side will be low on confidence after the midweek defeat to Milan, and might be happy for a slow game and a replay back at the Emirates. I'm not sure either side will be particularly adventurous, so I'll back under 2.5 goals at anything over [2.0].

Back Under 2.5 goals @ [2.02]