Football Betting: Why the FA Cup is about glory - not value

FA Cup / Frank Gregan / 12 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

The realists may be backing the big boys but Frank Gregan is a true dreamer and that's why he will be putting his money on the underdogs in this weekend's FA Cup Fifth Round ties.

I was a mere slip of a lad in the sixties but my elder siblings tell me it was the best decade of the 20th Century.

Halcyon days of mini skirts, George Best and Freddie and the Dreamers! FA Cup wins for Wolves, West Ham, West Brom and Manchester City as well as runners up slots for Blackburn, Burnley, Preston North End, Sheffield Wednesday and poor old Leicester City who were bridesmaids three times. The big four weren't football teams, they were The Beatles!

On the 17th May last year as Portsmouth and Cardiff took the field for the FA Cup final punters all over the world were scratching their heads thinking: "Why didn't I have a few bob on a lively outsider?"

The answer can be found in the statistics, the 'anyone can win it' days of the sixties had long gone. It had been twelve years of FA Cup domination by the big four prior to Pompey lifting the trophy. The last side outside of English football's elite to lift the trophy had been Everton in 1995. No wonder the vast majority of bets last season were placed on the big guns.

Given those statistics, the value available on the three remaining members of the big four still in the competition is understandable. A win wager on all three teams returns [1.22] in the worst case (Man Utd) and [1.96] in the best instance (Arsenal). That isn't value, although it'll probably look great value at 5pm on the 30th May. But where's the fun in that bet?

The FA Cup isn't about value - it's about glory! It's a national tradition that once your team is out the underdog in each and every tie is supported. Likewise, it is always nice to have a couple of outsiders at hefty prices in the portfolio as the competition enters the business end. Two in the quarter-finals at big odds is the stuff that dreams are made of and given a little luck and a following wind this year it could well be attainable.

I recommended West Ham before the third round at [50.0] and even though they are now [16.5] I will avoid the temptation to trade in play and hang on to them in the belief that they will overcome the 'Boro and reach the last eight.

The two that I will be backing to join them in the quarter-finals will be Sheff Utd at [110.0] and Coventry City at [250.0]. One in the last eight would be good, both through would be brilliant.

Sheff Utd came a cropper last week in the Steel City Derby and will be looking to progress against an outfit that most Blades fans consider a lesser force than their own club. Let's face it, not long ago it would have been laughable to suggest that Hull City would be in a division above the boys from Bramall Lane. Hull are there on merit but face a difficult tie and Sheff Utd are the favourites at [2.64] on Saturday.

Coventry visit Blackburn and, at [6.4], are not expected to have much success. Their form prior to the fourth round had been very good but after winning at Torquay in the last round they suffered successive league defeats at home to Cardiff and away to Derby. However, they bounced back in style last week against the leaders Wolves notching up a 2-1 win and have a realistic chance of progressing.

So there you have it - the realists will invest in the three remaining members of the big four whilst the dreamers will chase vast pots of gold for minimum risk. If I had have been fifteen years older I could have been in the backing band of that singer called Freddie, Sheffield United and Coventry - You were meant for me!