FA Cup / Andrew Atherley / 25 January 2012 /

Cards are always likely when Liverpool meet Manchester United but especially so when Martin Atkinson is the man in black, says Andrew Atherley who takes an in-depth look at the fourth round statistics

The FA Cup is going to kick off big time at Saturday lunchtime with two of the most combustible fixtures of recent years - QPR v Chelsea and Liverpool v Manchester United.

Never mind the local rivalries, the racism rows involving John Terry and Patrice Evra will heighten tension to uncomfortable levels. The chants will be ugly and much of the play might be too, especially at Anfield.

Liverpool-United fixtures are always fiery, to say the least, and Saturday's match looks highly flammable. For that reason, punters are likely to be scrambling to back 9pts and above in the bookings points market and it is difficult to argue with the logic.

Even in a 'normal' Liverpool-United match, the long-term stats show a succession of high bookings points totals. You have to go back more than six years to find the last meeting that produced as few as six bookings points and the 14 clashes since have averaged 11.2.

The average at Anfield is higher, at 12, with six out of seven producing nine or more bookings points. Strangely enough, it was the most recent clash - the one now infamous for Evra's clashes with Luis Suarez - that had the lowest bookings total (eight).

That was a rarity (five out of seven at Old Trafford have had nine or more bookings points) and it is difficult to see how the two sides will be able to keep a lid on the simmering tension between them.

Six of those last 14 meetings (43 per cent) have featured at least one sending-off and another dismissal or two would be no surprise on Saturday, especially with Martin Atkinson as referee.

Atkinson has issued the highest number of red cards (six) in the Premier League this season and is second-highest for yellows (65), having officiated in 17 matches.
With such a high incidence of dismissals in this fixture, and Atkinson in charge, Yes at [2.8] in the Sending Off? market is a higher-priced alternative to the bookings points for backers keen to put their money on an explosive encounter.

Before the FA Cup third round this column pointed out the value of backing over 2.5 goals in FA Cup ties involving a Premier League team away to a lower-league side, and in the event five of the eight matches in that category had over 2.5 goals (just as seven out of nine had at the same stage the previous season).

Considering under 2.5 goals tends to be favoured in that type of match-up, it seems a trend worth following again in this weekend's fourth-round ties.

One way of assessing whether a trend is a statistical quirk, or something more meaningful, is to see whether there is a logical explanation for the trend. In this case, it seems that lower-league teams are more willing and able to attack at home in search of an upset, while at the same time leaving themselves vulnerable to counters from the better strikers of their Premier League opponents.

That seems a recipe for an open game, with goals at both ends, and the statistics appear to bear out the theory.

This weekend's matches with a Premier League team away to a lower-league side start with Tottenham at Watford on Friday night, where over 2.5 goals is available to back at [1.83]. Over 2.5 goals is [2.12] in Derby v Stoke and [2.08] in Brighton v Newcastle.

Recommended Bets
Yes to Sending Off in Liverpool v Man Utd at [2.8]
Over 2.5 goals in Watford v Tottenham at [1.83]
Over 2.5 goals in Derby v Stoke at [2.12]
Over 2.5 goals in Brighton v Newcastle at [2.08]

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