FA Cup / Michael Lintorn / 17 February 2012 /

Aided by the ever insightful Opta stats, Michael Lintorn tips two slight shocks in Saturday afternoon's Premier League v Championship triple header in the FA Cup...

Everton v Blackpool, Match odds: Everton [1.5], Blackpool [7.6], The Draw [4.7]

Opta point out that two of Everton's last three FA Cup exits on Merseyside have come against lower league teams, but while they are evidently vulnerable to upsets - as Shrewsbury, Oldham and Reading have proven - only the latter of those came this late on.

The Toffees have more momentum than at any other point this season having not lost in six and defeated Manchester City and Chelsea in their last two home fixtures.

Of course, the same is true of Blackpool, who have suddenly emerged as top-two contenders in the Championship after seven wins and three draws in their last ten. Tellingly though, they have kept one clean sheet in nine, and that defensive weakness is more likely to be punished by a Premier League club.

Everton fired five past them in their Premier League encounter at Goodison Park last February, and with Opta noting that their last two meetings provided a combined 12 goals, over 2.5 goals at [1.89] and both teams to score at [2.0] look the standout bets in a probable home success.

Millwall v Bolton, Match odds: Millwall [2.86], Bolton [2.64], The Draw [3.55]

A desperately disappointing derby defeat to ten-man rivals West Ham earlier this month threatened to be a morale-shredder for Championship strugglers Millwall, but instead it appears to have galvanised them.

The Lions are unbeaten in three and got this far courtesy of a hugely impressive 3-2 victory away to one of the best sides in the second tier, Southampton, so they won't be fretting about facing one of the worst in the division above, who have suffered seven losses in ten on the road.

Opta reveal that Bolton haven't been conquered in any of their last four away FA Cup ties, however the last of those was a 2-2 draw with lowly League Two club Macclesfield, and their last trip to the capital in the competition saw them hammered 5-0 by Stoke.

Both Millwall's three home games before a bizarre four-day spell in which they were thumped 6-0 by Birmingham and routed Dagenham 5-0 and the three that followed all featured under 2.5 goals, so that's another bet to consider at [1.88].

Norwich v Leicester, Match odds: Norwich [1.9], Leicester [4.6], The Draw [3.75]

Whereas the other two 3pm clashes involve teams whose campaigns have mirrored one another's to an extent - Everton and Blackpool showing glimpses of quality before motoring after Christmas and Millwall and Bolton battling relegation - there are few similarities between Norwich and Leicester.

Norwich have exceeded expectations in a quite spectacular fashion, while the way that Leicester have failed to live up to theirs is remarkable in its own right, the one-time Championship title favourites currently nine points off the play-off pace despite playing a game more.

The advantage is that it enables them to focus more than most on the FA Cup, in which Opta state they are yet to concede after three outings, two against Nottingham Forest and one with one of the most in-side forms in the country, Swindon. They are [5.5] to keep another clean sheet.

And as Leeds have shown in the past, when you have FA Cup specialist Jermaine Beckford - 14 goals in his last 11 starts in the competition - you always have a chance.

Opta add that two decades have passed since Norwich last got beyond this stage. Paul Lambert's overachievers have won just two of their last five at home, and Foxes boss Nigel Pearson took four points off them with Hull last term, triumphing 2-0 at Carrow Road.

Recommended Bets:
Everton v Blackpool - Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.89]
Millwall v Bolton - Back Millwall to win @ [2.86]
Norwich v Leicester - Lay Norwich @ [1.91]

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