FA Cup Fourth Round Previews: Bolton to sink Swans

FA Cup / Mike Norman / 26 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Owen Coyle’s Bolton are looking to follow up last week’s impressive victory over Liverpool

"One of the reasons behind my confidence is the Opta stat that informs us Bolton are unbeaten in eight meetings against Swansea on home soil spanning over 30 years."

Mike Norman takes a look at three all-Premier League clashes as well as Stoke's trip to Championship side Derby, and he believes Bolton can follow up their win against Liverpool by beating Swansea.

Everton v Fulham, KO: Friday 20:00, Match Odds: Everton [2.08], Fulham [4.1], The Draw [3.5]

I've spoke in recent weeks about Everton's inability to put teams to bed and that, put simply, they don't score enough goals to make them a confident selection against any opposition. David Moyes' men have failed to score more than once in a game against top-flight opposition in their last 10 outings and they were hardly impressive in scoring just two goals against non-league Tamworth in round three.

Away from home Fulham don't score many goals either, in fact the Cottagers have scored just nine league goals on their travels in 11 outings, recording a solitary victory.

This could be a low-scoring affair then, but a few very interesting Opta stats tell us that Everton have never defeated Fulham at Goodison Park in four FA Cup ties, and that the Toffees have been knocked out of this competition on home soil in four of the last five seasons. Under 2.5 Goals and a lay on the home side will therefore be the suggested wagers in this Friday night encounter.

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.8]
Lay Everton @ [2.1]

QPR v Chelsea, KO: Saturday 12:00, Match Odds: QPR [6.0], Chelsea [1.66], The Draw [4.1]

Prior to Mark Hughes becoming boss QPR's last victory at Loftus Road was against Saturday lunchtime's fourth round opponents Chelsea. Since that encounter the Hoops have been very poor in the league; the Blues have been slightly less poor, and I'm not convinced we'll see a winner in this FA Cup tie at the first time of asking. At least I wasn't convinced until I read some enlightening Opta stats that is.

In a nutshell, QPR have an awful recent record in the FA Cup. This is the first time they have been in the fourth round since 2001 and on that day they lost 0-6 on home soil. What's more they have lost 11 of their last 12 meetings with top-flight clubs in this competition whilst Chelsea have lost just four of their last 35 FA Cup ties away from home.

In all honesty I don't want to back Chelsea at [1.66] on current form, but I'm certainly not prepared to lay them given the stats. Hopefully then this game will be a tight affair, and because of the very early kick-off, played at a pedestrian pace with few goals.

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [2.06]

Bolton v Swansea, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Bolton [2.54], Swansea [3.1], The Draw [3.5]

It's just typical of the Premier League that Bolton have been awful at home for most of the season, yet when they host one of the best away sides - Liverpool - they record a comfortable victory. Now the Trotters' face the Premier League's worst away side, Swansea, and can be backed at [2.54] for victory. That looks quite appealing to me.

One of the reasons behind my confidence is the Opta stat that informs us Bolton are unbeaten in eight meetings against Swansea on home soil spanning over 30 years. Owen Coyle's men have a decent record in the FA Cup recently too, and they've conceded just one goal at the Reebok Stadium in their last six ties. Brendan Rodgers' Swansea play some attractive football but away from home they have scored just eight goals all season meaning a home victory, and a home victory to nil, are the two recommended wagers.

Back Bolton @ [2.54]
Back Bolton Win to Nil @ [4.5]

Derby v Stoke, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Derby [3.5], Stoke[2.3], The Draw [3.5]

Derby have been excellent at Pride Park since the beginning of December, winning four straight league games including victories over Leeds and West Ham, and an FA Cup tie against Crystal Palace. Unusually for Stoke, they've won as many games away from home as they have at the Britannia Stadium this term, but they still find scoring goals on their travels hard to come by - just eight goals scored in 11 away trips.

At first glance this looks a difficult game to call and Derby probably would have been the selection if they were available to back at around the [5.0] mark. The fact that they are only [3.5] means that Stoke are a bigger price than expected, so having looked at the Opta stats, I'm happy to make Tony Pulis' men the selection.

Stoke have won their last three FA Cup ties away from home and impressively they have lost just one of their last 15 cup games against clubs from a lower division. On top of this, the Rams have lost each of the last five times they've faced top-flight opposition. If Stoke are at full strength they should be capable of earning a place in round five.

Back Stoke @ [2.3]