FA Cup Betting: Tottenham v Portsmouth

FA Cup / Mike Norman / 09 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

David James is set to return to the Portsmouth starting line-up for his club’s vital FA Cup semi-final against Tottenham

"Tottenham are by far the better team, they have by far the more big-game players, but there are two factors niggling away in my head that makes me want to be against them this time."

Champions League-chasing Spurs face doomed Portsmouth on Sunday, but the game won't be as straightforward as many expect it to be says "Mystical" Mike Norman. Best Bet: Lay Tottenham at [1.35].

If this were any game other than a FA Cup semi-final I'd be giving Portsmouth about as much chance of winning as Avram Grant has of riding the Grand National winner. But this is an FA Cup semi-final, and there's always the punting angle that suggests form can go completely out of the window to consider.

True, people will argue that the gulf in class between the very best teams and everyone else is so wide now that upsets will seldom occur. But in response to that I only have to mention Manchester United losing to Leeds and Liverpool losing to Reading to remind people that upsets still do happen. And let us not forget, Tottenham versus Portsmouth is actually a game between two Premier League sides, and it's a game that will be played at a neutral venue.

So on this basis I just can't bring myself to backing Spurs at [1.34] in the Match Odds market. They are by far the better team, they have by far the more big-game players, but there are two factors niggling away in my head that makes me want to be against them this time.

First, Harry Redknapp's men have a habit of throwing in some shocking performances when we least expect them to. On the back of a good run of form they were long odds-on to beat Wolves at White Hart Lane earlier in the season - Wolves won 1-0. Just a few weeks later Spurs were again expected to win comfortably at the Lane against woeful Hull City - the game ended goalless. Spurs have surprising lost to Wolves again since then, and just last week, after a run of five wins on the bounce, they lost heavily to lowly Sunderland.

Secondly, the FA Cup has a habit of producing fairytales from time to time. And wouldn't Portsmouth winning the FA Cup be one of the most wonderful fairytales ever?

Pompey have endured arguably the worst season in their history. They've sold players left right and centre to try and balance the books, they've had what seems like a hundred different owners - all of whom have let the club down badly - they've failed to pay players on time, gone into administration, had points deducted in the league, and they now sit bottom of the Premier League and will no doubt be relegated by the time this game kicks off.

If there's any justice in the world - and I'm not sure that there is - Portsmouth can finish the season on a high, reach the FA Cup final, and give their fans something to smile about. Pompey can be backed at [11.0] in the Match Odds market with The Draw being available at [5.8].

The team news from both camps is also encouraging if you're like me and thinking of laying Spurs at [1.35]. Redknapp has got a bit of a headache in defence with doubts over Ledley King, Vedran Corluka and Michael Dawson. Jonathan Woodgate is injured forever and defensive midfielder Tom Huddlestone is also rated doubtful. Pompey meanwhile are set to welcome back a host of players including the talented trio of Nadir Belhadj, Kevin-Prince Boateng and Papa Boupa Diop, and more importantly perhaps, goalkeeper David James.

I can see Tottenham having a lot of possession, and if they score early, they'll probably win comfortably. But if they don't get a goal in the first half hour or so then it could become a long afternoon on an energy-sapping Wembley pitch on a warm afternoon. Portsmouth will be happy to just keep their shape and frustrate Spurs for as long as possible.

I have to lay Spurs given what I've wrote and what I'd like to see happen so I'll also back the 0-0 option at [22.0] in the Correct Score market - I think that's incredibly over-priced. The favourites in this market are the 1-0 and 2-0 (to Tottenham) options, available to back at [8.6] and [7.2] respectively.

I'm afraid it's all eggs in one basket (I'm a week late with that line I know) for me as in the Half Time/Full Time market I'm backing Draw/Draw at [9.8]. If you do think Spurs will win comfortably then Tottenham/Tottenham might be the bet for you at [1.95].

A bit like fellow betting.betfair blogger Jaymes Monte (his Chelsea v Aston Villa preview can be read here) I'm going for a shock in this FA Cup semi-final. If I get it wrong I apologise, but I'm a sucker for a good fairytale. Are you?

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Lay Tottenhan @ [1.35] in Match Odds market
Also: Back 0-0 @ [22.0] in Correct Score market; Back Draw/Draw @ [9.8] in Half Time/Full Time market

*Tottenham v Portsmouth is live on ITV1, Sunday, Kick-off 4pm