FA Cup Betting: Swansea City v Fulham

FA Cup / Richard Walker / 13 February 2009 / 1 Comments

Richard Walker believes that the combination of Swansea's imperious home record, passing style and Fulham's poor away form makes backing the hosts a must. Best Bet: Back Swansea to win @ [2.72].

I know folk can get carried away with the FA Cup, so beware I'm about to get carried away...by the fact that hosts Swansea City are as big as nearly 2/1 on their own patch to oust Fulham in the last 16 of this grand old competition.

Yes, I've factored in the Championship v Premier League angle to this tie; yet still I can't be swayed from my view that a side with such an imperious home record and, just as importantly, a passing style befitting the top-flight, will get the better of the no-wins-on-the-road Whites.

Match Odds are tight, with Roy Hodgson's side at [2.88] to back and The Draw [3.4]. Oh, by the way, Fulham have managed a mighty three goals during those 12 winless away matches.

Spanish full-back Angel Rangel is back from a ban for Swansea, while Dickson Etuhu is out, Aaron Hughes a doubt and new loan signing Giles Barnes is cup-tied for the Premier League's tenth-placed outfit.

I have great respect for what the West London club have achieved under Hodgson. However, much as they might be feeling secure enough in the top-flight to take this tie more seriously, I can't see them matching City's verve, effervescence and sheer quality - truth be told - at the Liberty Stadium in front of the ITV cameras (the same ITV cameras that missed Everton's replay winner, unfortunately!).

I'll happily go one step further in support of the South Wales Swans and recommend you back them to be leading at the break and at the end. [4.9] is the Swansea/Swansea price in the Half-Time/Full-Time market. I can see them fast out of the traps in familiar surroundings - perhaps taking as much as a 2-0 lead into the break. Fulham/Fulham is [5.2] should you take a polar opposite view, while the proximity of odds for Draw/Swansea [6.8] and Draw/Fulham [7.4] reflect Betfair layers' uncertainty at who'll prevail.

With a W7 D8 L1 home record, you kind of think that 'Lay Fulham' should be the cry but, with Swans' hitman Jason Scotland in such special form (seven goals from his last six games), I reckon you can be more positive. In fact, while we're talking personnel, the Caribbean striker will be around [8.0] to be First Goalscorer. I'll be playing him in preference to other options such as Fulham front-runner Andy Johnson, about a [7.0] chance, or Bobby Zamora, nearer [9.0] to notch first.

I can see why the Under/Over 2.5 goals market is balanced the way it is. Unders is a strong [1.7] jolly with Overs seemingly massive at [2.4]. I'm not convinced either way here. Although it goes against the Fulham form, I can see a few goals - possibly all for the hosts - so I might play Overs and look to trade in-play on the back of an early goal.

Correct Score fans have got it tough unless taking the view there'll be very few goals. An early one for City, for example, would open this tie up for an unnaturally expansive Fulham display. Then, anything's possible. I fancy otherwise however, with 2-0 to the Swans at [14.5] and 2-1 to them [12.0] both tempting prices. The [7.2] jolly is a 1-1 draw, however it's a more eye-catching [17.0] for a 2-0 away success or [8.8] about a 1-0 win to either side.

I think Swansea will make home advantage count - but I like Fulham so it wouldn't break me to be wrong!

Comments (1)

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