FA Cup / Andrew Atherley / 20 January 2010 /

Andrew Atherley tells us why over 2.5 goals is the call as Bolton and Wolves host Sheffield and Crystal Palace in the FA Cup this weekend.

One FA Cup angle that continues to be exploitable in the goals markets is matches involving Premier League teams at home to Championship sides, which show a strong trend towards over 2.5 goals.

In the past 10 seasons, 59% of games in this category have produced over 2.5 goals - a trend mirrored so far this season with three out of five such games having over 2.5 goals.
This is a trend that the market can underestimate, and that might be the case again on Saturday. Bolton v Sheffield United and Wolves v Crystal Palace - the only ties where a Premier League team is at home to a Championship side - both have over 2.5 goals available to back at [2.08] in the early betting.

Replays - as well as later rounds - might produce more match-ups in this category, with Chelsea (at Preston) and Manchester City (at Scunthorpe) in line to face Championship teams at home if they don't get the job done at the first time of asking.

The trend with Championship teams at home to Premier League opponents is in favour of under 2.5 goals (54% in the past 10 seasons), so it is interesting that under 2.5 goals is [2.16] to back in Preston v Chelsea and [2.1] to back in Scunthorpe v Manchester City.

A golden rule of football betting would be not to overreact to dramatic results: things are rarely as bad, or as good, as they seem.

That's worth bearing in mind when considering Sunderland's prospects in their FA Cup visit to Portsmouth on Saturday and in their next Premier League game (away to Everton next Wednesday) following their 7-2 thrashing at Chelsea.

We have already seen this season how Wigan bounced back from their 9-1 humiliation against Spurs with a 1-0 win in their following match, at home to Sunderland, and that kind of response is far from rare. Of the other three teams that have conceded six goals in a single match this season, two won their next match.

In the history of the Premier League, 72 teams have conceded six or more goals in a single match. Discounting two teams that did not play again in the same season because their heavy loss came in the final match, the next-game results for the 70 were not as bad as might have been expected.

Slightly more of those teams won (41%) than lost (39%) and another notable factor was that just over one-third of them (36%) kept a clean sheet. The home results were best of all, predictably, with a 58% win rate and no more than an average defeat rate.

When those teams went away, however, they tended to perform poorly again, winning just three out of 25 and losing 15, which indicates that Sunderland might not recover so quickly. A quarter of those teams kept a clean sheet, which is a respectable number, but a quarter also conceded three or more goals.

Twenty of the 29 teams that won after a heavy defeat were helped by shutting out the opposition, with 16 winning 1-0 or 2-0. Of the 19 that conceded on the road, 15 lost and only one won.

Portsmouth and Everton, then, should not expect Sunderland to roll over, but if they score their win chance will be very high. A Sunderland clean sheet may well be critical to their chances in both games and correct scores of 1-0 and 2-0 might pay off for those looking for a rapid response from Steve Bruce's team.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: