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FA Cup Betting: Reading the runes for a Cardiff upset

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Alsy looks back at the times when the minnows really did take the glory. Can it be done again?

It's a shame there's no market on the number of times "the magic of the FA Cup" will be mentioned on TV this Saturday. No one can describe the exact nature of this "magic" but it's pretty ancient stuff and characterised by quagmire pitches, meat pies and arduous journeys to Wembley's two towers. More epic than a Tolkien novel, the FA Cup boasts fantastic heroes to match anything from the pages of DC Comics - forget Batman, Superman and The Flash what about Havant & Waterlooville, Ronnie Radford and Ricky Villa? The silver pot with the jug ears is all about David and Goliath encounters.

More than any other year in living memory the road to the 127th FA Cup final has been difficult to predict and Cardiff or Portsmouth will be the first team, outside of the Premiership's "Big Four", to triumph since Everton in 1995.

While the best traditions of the FA Cup are associated with giant-killing these upsets are usually confined to games prior to the final. A look through the list of recent winners confirms that FA Cup final upsets are as rare as finalists from outside the top-flight of football.

Nevertheless Cardiff fans should take heart - even in the world's oldest cup competition, there are examples of top tier teams being felled by sides from a lower division. One of the most famous cases involved one of the world's biggest clubs.

Southampton caused a huge upset in 1973 when defeating Manchester United 1-0. Bobby Stokes' 83rd minute winner sealed one of the most memorable victories in any FA final as Lawrie McMenemy's side were still in the old Second Division. As a former Saints manager, Dave Jones will be only too happy to channel Lawrie McMenemy and shoplift a victory for Cardiff City.

Other teams from outside the top-flight have reached finals in the past (Millwall, lost to Manchester 3-0 in 2004) but in recent decades Southampton remain one of only two teams to have triumphed. While Jones has an association with one team of giant-killers, Portsmouth manager Harry Redknapp is linked to the only other non-top flight team (in the modern era) to win the FA Cup: West Ham's 1-0 defeat of Arsenal in 1980.

Perhaps this upset was even more impressive than Southampton's victory. Manchester were a good side in 1973 but Arsenal were at the height of their powers in 1980 and had reached the final for the third consecutive year. Ignoring pedigree, Trevor Brooking's header was enough to seal victory in this London-based FA Cup classic.

Another group of plucky Londoners produced an FA Cup final upset when Wimbledon beat the mighty Liverpool 1-0 in 1988. Admittedly Wimbledon were in the top division at the time but they defeated the dominant side of the 1980's in a final that was packed with incident. Lawrie Sanchez's headed goal sent shockwaves through millions of TV sets before Dave Beasant saved a penalty... the Crazy Gang proved that, occasionally, unlikely dreams come true in FA Cup finals.

Both Cardiff and Portsmouth have some history of success in the competition but it's unlikely any fans will remember these old triumphs first hand. Pompey won the FA Cup in 1939 beating Wolves 4-1 to register their only triumph to date.

Cardiff became the first and only club from outside England to win in 1927. It was their second final after a 1-0 loss to Sheffield United in 1925 so they've had to wait a little for their third appearance.

So what are the chances of a new instance of giant-killing? You can back the Welsh team to win at [5.5] which seems like great value to me. This year the competition hasn't gone to form so I fancy a fairytale ending for the Championship side. All three cases detailed above were won 1-0 so get some cash on a Cardiff 1-0 win at [12.5].