FA Cup / Richard Walker / 23 January 2010 / 1

Having won a famous victory over their fierce rivals in midweek, Manchester City aren't about to surrender to a Championship outfit, are they? Richard Walker selects the best bets from what should be an up and at em' tie.

If Scunthorpe United are to overturn Manchester City in Sunday's feature FA Cup Fourth Round tie, the Iron will have had to play amazingly well and City will have a true off-day.

Such is the gulf which now separates the space of just one-and-a-half divisions in English football. It's not my opinion. Would that it were, it's simply a fact of footballing life - but that should not for one minute stop us enjoying our staking on what promises to be an up-and-at-em tie at the modest surroudings of Glanford Park.

The two met back in October, in a Fourth Round tie in the Carling Cup, and then City boss Mark Hughes took no chances with a powerful line-up which defeated Nigel Adkins' team 5-1.

Roberto 'The Scarf' Mancini has already made it clear that Carlos Tevez will be on the bench at the most and that players like Nigel De Jong and Gareth Barry are to be rested. Also out are Patrick Vieira and Roque Santa Cruz (both calf) while Emmanuel Adebayor isn't expected to resume training until next week.

Scunthorpe have Josh Wright coming back from injury, although the towering centre-half Rob Jones is injured meaning skipper Cliff Byrne will stay inside (he's usually at right-back) alongside David Mirfin.

So if there is a straw to be clutched in north-east Lincolnshire, it's that City's line up is likely to contain some slightly weaker international footballers this time round! Mancini's assertion that Steven Ireland is sure to feature should in itself worry United. He got the first of the five at Eastlands and ran the show until being replaced on the hour mark.

There's just too much going for City for this to be a proper upset - but I suggest Scunthorpe, on a decent trot of three unbeaten right now, might be able to cling on for a draw, perhaps at least reaching the interval on level terms. I'm making Draw/City HT/FT my main play for this one, backing it at [5.3].

Despite having relegation concerns to deal with (United are only four points off the Championship drop zone), I can see their vim and vigour getting them to half-time on level terms. That doesn't mean there won't be goals. Laying Under 2.5 goals to a [2.36] liability looks a reasonable course of action, then perhaps join in during play with some higher-number plays to build on your profit. Over 2.5 goals is at [1.73] with Over 3.5 ready to tempt some at [2.72].

City aren't quite as short as I expected, perhaps just a doff of the cap to the fact they're not at their own place. Odds of [1.44] to win is still skinny enough but might they make a good banker for some in a multiple. The Draw is [5.0] and the Iron are a [9.0] chance. Even if I were a United fan, I'd like to see that hit double-figures before getting involved.

Expectations point to an open game. Adkins surely cannot countenance sitting back at his own place. You tend to get only one chance of a shock and I expect him to employ Scunthorpe's usual attack-minded, quite expansive brand of football. They don't bomb it forward, they like to use wide areas, with their play often warming the Glanford Park faithful into vociferous support.

Top of their goals chart is Gary Hooper and, whatever the final score, I think he'll get at least a consolation. An under-developed market has him at [3.2] to score. I'd be looking for over [3.5] to be fair, but consider him at least. The aforementioned Ireland will be among City's most likely marksman - and I think you can be fairly sure that Benjani will be in the mix, probably alongside Craig Bellamy up front. Ireland is [9.2] for the first goal, Benjani [5.8] and Bellamy [5.9]. Take your pick...probably after waiting for the starting line-ups, in all honesty.

My eye is drawn to an 80%-20% split-stake interest in the correct score list. The [13.5] about a 3-1 City win looks like fun, with the 20% cover on the market favourite Any Unquoted [5.1] looking like just the job. City 3-0 is [12.0] and 3-2 is [34.0]. Fancy a shock? Scunthorpe 1-0 rates a [28.0] chance, with a more conservative 1-1 at [10.5].

So plenty for Betfairians to ponder. Even if you reckon the result's not in doubt, there's plenty of ways to turn a profit.

Selected Bets:
Back Draw/City HT/FT @ [5.3];
Lay Under 2.5 goals @ [2.36];
Back Hooper to score @ [3.5].

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1. dan | 23 January 2010

   You are obviously no fan of Scunthorpe. Hope you haven't got a ticket for the game or you might struggle to find it in North EAST Lincs.

   Iron goal to be scored by Paul Hayes if any.

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