FA Cup Betting: Preston v Chelsea

FA Cup / Jaymes Monte / 22 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Chelsea breezed past Watford in emphatic fashion in the third round, and there’s no reason to suggest why they can’t do the same here.

"Now I’m not suggesting that this one will necessarily end with more than six goals (although if you think that it will you can back that at [13.0] in the ‘Total Goals’ market) but I have to conclude that 1.75] on there being over 2.5 and [2.8] on over 3.5 are surely the definition of great value bets."

The famous '7 (seven)' text has been resurrected from the archives of football results services twice already this month for games involving these two teams. It may be pushing it to ask for a third occasion but Jaymes Monte believes that backing Over 2.5 goals at [1.75] is a steal.....

It was presumed in some quarters that Chelsea might struggle without the services of Didier Drogba, Michael Essien, Salomon Kalou and John Obi Mikel whilst they were away on International duty in the African Cup of Nations. Yet there couldn't have been a better reaction to silence those concerned than the performance they put in against Sunderland last weekend. The seven goals that they notched against a team that neither Manchester United, Arsenal or Liverpool have managed to beat this season made it 12 goals scored since the departure of the African quartet and two emphatic victories.

Ironically that result was a precursor to them being knocked off the top of the league for the first time since the middle of October but whilst they have games in hand over Arsenal that won't concern them too much. It certainly won't enter their thoughts on Saturday morning as they travel to the home of the National Football Museum and the oldest continually-used football league site in the world, Deepdale.

Aside from the African contingent Jose Bosingwa is the only other enforced absentee for The Blues. Deco is expected to be available following the groin injury which has kept him out in recent weeks and although Ashley Cole and John Terry were taken off at half-time against Sunderland Carlo Ancelotti has confirmed that that was merely a precaution. The conundrum for those betting on this match is whether the manager will go with a full strength team against Preston as he did in the third round against Watford. The difference here being that Chelsea have a tough Premier League game against Birmingham on Wednesday whereas they had a full week to recover after the Watford game.

I'm inclined to think that it will be a relatively strong side and would especially expect Joe Cole to continue his recovery from injury here. It seems that Betfair punters agree because Chelsea are priced up at [1.3] favourites in the match odds, but I'd approach that tentatively until the team news is available.

New Preston manager Darren Ferguson didn't get off to the best of starts in his new role losing 4-2 to Bristol City in his first game, but like his father, he will be looking to make amends rather sharply, a 0% record is not a Ferguson family trait. Although he may have Tuesday night's game against his former club earmarked for that and I certainly wouldn't suggest backing them here at the [13.0] on offer.

A 7-0 win over Colchester in the third round emphatically confirmed Preston's progression and coupled with the aforementioned results, means that these two sides have produced a total of 27 goals in their last two games apiece - an average of 6.75 goals per game. Now I'm not suggesting that this one will necessarily end with more than six goals (although if you think that it will you can back that at [13.0] in the 'Total Goals' market) but I have to conclude that [1.75] on there being over 2.5 and [2.8] on over 3.5 are surely the definition of great value bets.

For some bigger priced bets I would suggest a look at Daniel Sturridge at [5.0] to get the first goal, as he did against Watford. Or back Chelsea (or Preston) to hit three before half-time as they did against Watford and Sunderland by backing 'Any Unquoted' in the 'Half Time Score' market at around the [6.0] mark. We all enjoy a cup upset as was re-iterated by Leeds' victory at Old Trafford, but if you're looking for a similar occasion in the fourth round then I would implore that you look elsewhere as Chelsea have hit fifth gear in recent weeks and are unstoppable when they do so.