FA Cup Betting: Non-League duo can give it a real go

FA Cup / Gary Boswell / 05 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

A big part of Paulton Rovers' job against Norwich will be to keep target man Grant Holt quiet

As Charlton and Norwich take to the pitch in front of the TV cameras at the weekend in the FA Cup, their respective opposition may not be teams most of us are familair with. But that's not to say they can't win, says Gary Boswell.

Marriages often go through a lull. Excitement dims and something is needed to put that extra zip back into the relationship. So it has been between the non-league football fraternity and Betfair of late. Ever since the Setanta UK collapse and the loss of live non-league football on the telly. We haven't had an in-play game to get excited over and things have gone a bit flat.

Bring on the FA Cup First Round Proper and back to back weekend games live on ITV! The chance to punt Zamaretto South and West minnows Paulton Rovers at [13.0] against the Canaries and all the live in play markets to bring the trading game back into our domain. It feels like coming out of retirement!

I've been gearing up for this and have my wedge seriously at the ready. Paulton might be five tiers below Norwich but all the old cup clichés - of which the only one I'll repeat is the one about it being a leveller - can be brought to the fore and used to justify the sort of bet you just don't get in football every day.

The in-play aspect makes it sound business sense as well. Havant & Waterlooville were five tiers below Liverpool when they went 2-1 up at Anfield. Those who had laid Liverpool at obscenely short odds or backed the visitors at sky high prices made a mint from trading that starting position. Likewise Chasetown versus Port Vale and that's what this fixture equates to. Norwich are a better side than Vale were perhaps but Paulton are no mugs and their route to this fixture has been seriously impressive in non-league terms. Just one goal conceded (and that a consolation in the game against Bedford) and the scalp of Blue Square South champions elect Newport County.

It was the three-nil win against Chippenham in the final qualifier that really impressed me though. Town have one of non-league's dormant talents on the books in Ben Highmore and I was predicting that he would rip the Rovers defence to shreds.

Nothing could have been further from the truth and Rovers did exactly as they did against Newport and weathered an early storm and then attacked on the counter to run out comfortable winners.

Always in cup upsets, there has to be a heroic goalkeeper and Paulton's is a midget called Kyle Phillips (nickname Smallville) who had an absolute blinder against Newport. On him, along with centre back Ollie Price - who will have the job of keeping Grant Holt quiet - doth Paulton's chances rest. They might struggle with Wesley Hoolahan if he's on a going day but the pitch might do for him and so long as Rovers break it up and keep the ball in the air where they have a few that will live with Norwich, then the shock is a possible. At [13.0] and with the chance to trade in running, I can't wait!

Whatever happens Saturday, Sunday's game is a serious punting day. Paulton are genuine outsiders but on my reading of these things, Northwich Victoria are a value punt at [9.0] to upset the Addicks. Only two tiers between these if you allow for the Vics' enforced CVA demotion (which this cup run is likely to lift them out of) and most of the BSP team of last season remained in Cheshire and are busy trying to overcome the points deduction in the BSN this season. Johnny Allan, Mark Danks and Simon Grand are all players who can compete with a Charlton side who have won just two in their last nine and look a lay to me at odds of [1.48]. I watched them against Carlisle last week, as I'm sure old Carlisle boy Andy Preece will have done, and on that evidence, he'll be instructing the Vics to shoot on sight to see where it takes them. Charlton do look on a bit of a psychological wobble and ripe for Vics to have a real go.

THE BOZ'S BETS FOR THE WEEKEND:

BACK NORTHWICH VICTORIA to beat CHARLTON at [9.0] or longer
BACK PAULTON ROVERS to beat NORWICH CITY at [13.0] or longer
With fingers on the buttons ready for those in play trades!

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -13.01 to level stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting having closed his recommended BSP outrights portfolio satchel with a minimum +9 point profit on all teams.