FA Cup Betting: Expect goals where cream rises

FA Cup / Andrew Atherley / 21 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Andrew Atherley explores recent FA Cup trends and discovers that there is a higher probability of goals in the knock-out competition than in the league...

Romantics will be looking to Kettering, Hartlepool, Millwall and, to a lesser extent, Torquay for giant-killing acts in this weekend's FA Cup fourth round. That quartet are the only surviving teams from outside the top two divisions, and for the most part the cream has risen to the top already with 12 of the 16 ties featuring clubs drawn only from the Premier League and Championship.

With those 12 ties forming the bulk of the FA Cup coupon, it is worth considering how recent trends in the competition might be of help to punters, and one area of interest is the goals potential in those matches. In short, there is plenty of goals potential, as all ties involving clubs drawn only from the top two leagues in the past eight seasons have produced 54% over 2.5 goals.

Looking only at ties between Premier League clubs, there appears to be a cup factor at work. In the FA Cup in the past eight seasons, all-Premier ties have produced 56% over 2.5 goals, while the league average in the same period was tilted towards under 2.5 goals, with just 47% over 2.5 goals.

That indicates a higher probability than usual of over 2.5 goals in this weekend's three all-Premier ties - Manchester United v Tottenham, Sunderland v Blackburn and Liverpool v Everton. The latter two match-ups in the league produced a goalless draw and a 1-1 (both matches played within the past month), and it will be interesting to see whether punters follow that guide or the general cup trend in the goals market.

The market is expecting another tight encounter on Sunday between Liverpool and Everton when they meet at Anfield for the second time in six days, with under 2.5 goals priced at [1.71] and over 2.5 goals at [2.4]. It is worth noting that the 10 Benitez-Moyes league derbies have produced an even split of under/over 2.5 goals, which indicates that the market might be tilted too far towards a lower score.

Over 2.5 goals is also the outsider at [2.04] in the Sunderland v Blackburn clash, with under 2.5 goals preferred in the market at [1.91]. United v Tottenham, a fixture that produced a 3-1 win for United at Old Trafford at the same stage of last season's FA Cup, is expected to yield more goals, with over 2.5 goals favoured at [1.77].

Another high-scoring match-up is Premier League teams at home to Championship sides, with 61% over 2.5 goals in the past eight seasons. This is not so surprising, as the goals potential is expected to increase as the gap widens between two opposing teams, but it is a trend that the market might underestimate.

There are three such match-ups this weekend, and in two of them - Portsmouth v Swansea and West Brom v Burnley - over 2.5 goals is the outsider at [2.06] and [2.0] respectively. In the other game, Chelsea v Ipswich, over 2.5 goals is priced at [1.61], which is in line with the trend average.

The fourth round features three all-Championship ties, starting with Friday's live East Midlands derby between Derby County and Nottingham Forest, and the past eight seasons show an even split of under/over 2.5 goals in this type of match. It may be inconclusive either way, but 50% over 2.5 goals still outstrips the league average of 47%.

Over 2.5 goals is outsider in two of the three all-Championship ties, at [2.16] in Derby v Forest and [2.22] in Watford v Crystal Palace, and joint-favourite at [1.99] in Sheffield United v Charlton.

The remaining type of match-up - Championship teams at home to Premier League teams - is where the goals potential is lowest, with 54% under 2.5 goals in the past eight seasons. Again, this should not be too surprising, with Premier League teams having a protective class barrier in such matches but still on their guard against a possible upset.

This weekend's live match in this category is Cardiff v Arsenal, where under 2.5 goals is outsider at [2.08]. A clean sheet for Arsenal, available at [2.5], could hold the key to the goals potential, as 22 of the 28 clean sheets for Premier League teams in such encounters have led to under 2.5 goals. When the Championship team has scored, 60% have had over 2.5 goals, which is priced at [1.9] in Cardiff v Arsenal.