FA Cup Betting: Coventry v Chelsea

FA Cup / Richard Walker / 06 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Coventry's good recent form and the fact that Guus Hiddink has a lot of fixtures to negotiate at the moment steers Richard Walker towards an unlikely draw here. Plus the other good betting options for this FA Cup quarter-final. Best bet: Back the draw at [4.0].

For those that will be crawling all over the [1.59] to back Chelsea in the Match Odds section for this game, there is a least a micron of doubt around - and it comes in the shape of their rejuvenated hosts for this, the first of the FA Cup quarter-final ties.

While the 'Manager of the Month' award is commonly recognised as being universally unwelcome, Chris Coleman has guided his Sky Blues to three wins and a draw during February in collecting the award.

So they're entitled to come into the tie mentally strong and, with the backing of what can be a noisy Ricoh Arena behind them, I'm suggesting you back The Draw at [4.0]. City are [7.6] if you think they can prevail. I don't - but I can see them nicking a goal somewhere along the line and showing enough resistance to force an unwanted (from Chelsea's point of view) Stamford Bridge replay.

Don't get me wrong, there's plenty of statistical and analytical reasons to simply lump on the Blues but, while Guus Hiddink has clearly had a calming influence, I don't rate this competition as their top priority. And you can also factor in Tuesday's Champions League last 16 second leg away at Juventus.

In Round Five, it was City's Championship counterparts Watford who took the lead when playing host to Chelsea, only to see it all turn around in 20 late second-half minutes. While the scenario might not directly be repeated, I wouldn't steer you off the [3.35] about Coventry to score the 'Next Goal' (i.e. the first in this instance).

The 2.5 goals market is one I pondered on for some time. If I saw Coventry getting a draw, would it likely be 0-0, 2-2 or 1-1? I didn't think they could score twice and, if I'm wrong about the result, you could see the Blues getting one up and sitting on it. So Unders is the play and, at [1.81], contains sufficient value for you to go in heavy if that's your punting make-up. Overs is [2.2] and I've no doubt will have its supporters as well.

So 1-1 it is for a Correct Score. That's [8.2] to back. Chelsea 3-0 is [13.5] and 1-0 to the visitors is joint jolly in this list with 2-0 at [7.0] to back.

A market I've fared very well in of late is backing The Draw as a HT result. It's priced at [2.38] for this tie and that appeals again. I think it'll be even for a while before the Blues try and exert their extra class on proceedings. If you see it differently, Chelsea are [2.1] to be leading at the break.

Goalscoring options range from the obvious - Didier Drogba and Nicolas Anelka both around evens To Score - to the likes of Elliott Ward, City centre-half and regular penalty-taker at something more like [10.0] in that list. Take your chances, perhaps play it late on this one and get on when you're certain of team line-ups.

So I know I'm at the mercy of Chelsea's attitude for the tie but I'm sticking with level-pegging come full-time. The Sky Blues only have Leon McKenzie out injured but, come on, let's be fair, what really matters is Hiddink's approach. Will he go in strong, looking to win the game in the first hour then haul off his stars ready for Tuesday? Or will he let some lesser lights - such as Slovakian Miroslav Stoch, for example - have a chance to prove they can get the job done themslves?

As hinted above, playing some markets after the team-sheets are in might be key to success here! Good luck.