FA Cup Betting: Can Championship clubs dominate again?

FA Cup / Andrew Atherley / 31 December 2008 / Leave a comment

Championship clubs whipped up a storm in the FA Cup last season, providing three of the semi-finalists. Will lightning strike again this season, or will calm be restored to the established order? Andrew Atherley investigates...

While last season was a highwater mark for Championship clubs, it is not unusual for a second-tier team to reach the later stages of the competition even with the disparity in spending power and squad strength between the Premier League and the Championship. In the past 10 seasons the Championship has provided eight of the 40 semi-finalists, which equates to a third of the places in the last four not taken by the Premier League's big four.

Only one of those Championship semi-finalists, Barnsley last season, was outside the top 12 in the Championship at the start of the FA Cup third round, which points towards the top half of the Championship table as the place to look for potential surprise teams at big odds. Apart from Barnsley (who were only just outside the Championship top half in 13th place), the only other team to reach the semi-finals from anywhere below halfway in the Championship in the past 10 seasons was League One side Wycombe in 2000/01.

The shortest-priced Championship team in this year's competition are leaders Wolves at [150.0] and such long odds are tempting, considering that on semi-finals day last season Barnsley were the longest-priced team left in the competition at around [9.0]. If Wolves get the luck of the draw, clearly they are the Championship team best equipped to go a long way, following the example set by West Brom last season when they led the Championship at this stage and, as well as going on to win the title, reached the FA Cup semi-finals.

The luck of the draw is a crucial factor, however, and Wolves face a difficult start in their third-round tie at Birmingham, who are third in the Championship and priced at [160.0], and so do Cardiff and Reading (fourth and second respectively in the Championship) as they go head to head at Ninian Park. Cardiff, semi-finalists last season, are [260.0] while Reading are shorter at [170.0]. Those pairings are going to put two of the Championship top four in the fourth round, and whichever team goes through will be dangerous, but it is difficult to choose between them at this stage.

While the draw for later rounds is an unknown, an easier start clearly is an advantage - last season's semi-finalists from the Championship all had third-round ties against teams below them in the league standings. Barnsley went on to excel themselves with giant-killing feats against Liverpool and Chelsea, but in contrast Cardiff and West Brom met only one Premier League team in nine ties between them before their respective final and semi-final defeats by Portsmouth.

Of the 12 teams from the Championship top 12 at the start of the third round that went on to reach at least the quarter-finals in the past 10 seasons, nine opened their cup run with a tie against a team below the Championship top 12 and only two were paired with a Premier League team in the third round.

That indicates particular difficulty for Preston (seventh in the Championship), who are at home to Liverpool, and Bristol City (12th in the Championship), who visit holders Portsmouth.

On paper the easiest draws for teams from the Championship top 12 are those handed to Sheffield United (away to Orient), Crystal Palace (away to Leicester), Ipswich (home to Droylsden or Chesterfield, if the non-league club's expulsion is confirmed) and Swansea (away to non-league Histon). At this stage those four Championship clubs must go on the shortlist for punters looking for a long-priced option, with Sheffield United the shortest of the quartet at [220.0].

Palace, who are [390] to lift the cup, appear to have the toughest assignment of that quartet with their visit to League One leaders Leicester, though another key factor to consider with teams from the top 12 of the Championship is their excellent match record against opponents from anywhere below halfway in the Championship.

In that category, in the past 10 seasons, teams from the Championship top 12 have a home win rate of 70%, which equates to average odds of [1.43], and an away win rate of 55%, equivalent to [1.8]. Against teams from outside the top two divisions, the away win rate is slightly higher at 58%, equivalent to [1.73], which indicates there might be value in backing Palace at [2.82] for a win at Leicester. The average odds can also be beaten with an Asian handicap bet on Palace off -0 at [1.99], which has appeal as teams from the Championship top 12 have lost only 19% away to teams from outside the top two divisions in the past 10 seasons.
Those average odds can also be beaten with Sheffield United (sixth in the Championship) at [2] to win at Orient (fourth-bottom in League One).

This season there are no third-round ties between teams from the top half and bottom half of the Championship, but that type of match-up is worth looking out for later in the competition. The overall 71% home win rate for top 12 Championship teams against lower-placed opponents hardly changes even when the sample of oppnents is narrowed to bottom-half Championship teams, and the away win rate remains respectable at 46% (55% overall), equivalent to odds of [2.17].

Last season teams from the Championship top 12 at the kick-off of the third round won seven out of seven ties when paired against teams from anywhere below that group and getting those high-performing teams onside could be a route to profit again, particularly if a couple of them get the required luck of the draw that enables them to reach the later stages.