Brighton v Newcastle: Seagulls to down Magpies

FA Cup / Jaymes Monte / 27 January 2012 /

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Mackail-Smith can punish Newcastle's defensive frailties.

"despite staggering past Wrexham like a hen party stumbling along the city’s seafront on a Saturday evening, Brighton come into this game in good form."

It took a penalty shoot-out for Brighton to edge past non-league Wrexham and set up this tie, but now that they're here they'll fancy upsetting the odds...

Brighton v Newcastle, KO: Saturday 17:15, ESPN, Match Odds: Brighton [4.0], Newcastle [2.1], The Draw [3.7]

Brighton couldn't see off Wrexham in 210 minutes of football. But held their collective nerve from 12 yards to avoid all the 'cupset' and 'giant killing' headlines. Now the clog is on the other limb as they host Newcastle United looking to star in some clichéd captions of their very own.

Following a blistering start to life in the Championship, that saw them briefly top the table, the Seagulls' form tapered off in the second quarter of the season. Three consecutive wins have arrested the slump and, such is the tightness of the Championship table, resurrected hopes of obtaining a play-off spot. An emphatic 3-0 win over Southampton set the ball rolling and was followed by victories over Bristol City and Peterborough.

So, despite staggering past Wrexham like a hen party stumbling along the city's seafront on a Saturday evening, Brighton come into this game in good form.

Newcastle, on the other hand, go to the south coast following an emphatic 5-2 defeat to Fulham last weekend. Alan Pardew and his men have, however, been here before. Talk of bubbles bursting on Tyneside following a run of one win in eight games was met with a sumptuous 3-0 victory over Manchester United at the Sports Direct Arena earlier this month.

They've since managed to grind out wins, in the absence of Demba Ba, against QPR and Blackburn, and their league position affords them the luxury of having a good go at the FA Cup this season. But I'm still not convinced that they can cope without the Senegal striker and they appear too reliant on wonder goals from their midfield.

With the TV cameras in attendance and a sense of expectation around the Amex Stadium, I fancy Brighton to at least force a replay: albeit a replay that I would ultimately expect the Geordies to emerge victorious from. Lay Newcastle at odds of [2.1].

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Newcastle's early season success was built around an astute, settled defence. Injuries to key players in that defence such as Steven Taylor, and Fabricio Coloccini for a brief period, unsettled the Magpies. Despite looking assured against Manchester United and QPR recently the capitulation of Craven Cottage suggests that some of those cracks are beginning to reappear.

Davide Santon's positional sense at Fulham was akin to that of a cow in a chicken pen. If the fit-again Craig Mackail-Smith is give the opportunities that Bobby Zamora and Andy Johnson were afforded then the Scotland international will be equally as ruthless.

At odds of [2.1] the value in this market has to lie in the Over 2.5 selection. That is to also hope that Newcastle will find a way of responding to any defensive frailties.

Both Teams to Score?
In direct conflict with the above is the statistic that both teams have scored in just four of Brighton's last 17 matches. Yet that is counteracted by the fact that three of those four games have come in the last four.

10 of Newcastle's last 15 outings in all competitions have seen both teams score and two of three games since Ba's departure have also seen both sides hit the back of the net.

Perhaps surprisingly, it is probably the Premier League outfit who put this bet at most risk, but [1.9] on Yes in the Both Teams to Score market has to be backed.

To Score
Since the beginning of the African Cup of Nations Newcastle's midfield have been required to step up to the plate and contribute with goals. Hatem Ben Arfa has two in his last three games while Danny Guthrie and Jonas Gutierrez have each chipped in with one apiece.

The little Frenchman looks a worthwhile investment at odds of [3.75] to score at anytime in the match, while Yohan Cabaye is also a threat and can be backed at odds of [5.0] in the same market.

Best Bet:
Lay Newcastle to win @ [2.1]

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