FA Cup / Michael Lintorn / 08 January 2012 /

Michael Lintorn is backing Arsenal to secure their usual spot in the fourth round with a narrow victory over Championship side Leeds...

Arsenal v Leeds, Monday 19:45 BST, ESPN

There are many who question Arsene Wenger's recent record in the transfer market, but his first foray into the January window was a fairly shrewd one.

With Arsenal's fine autumn form making way for a run of just four wins in ten in all competitions as the weather has grown colder and the skies darker earlier, it is as if he has anticipated crowd unrest and fresh criticism of his revamped squad, and distracted fans with the return of Thierry Henry.

Following confirmation of his two-month loan on Friday, their all-time record goalscorer is eligible for Monday's FA Cup third round tie at home to Leeds, a club who Opta note he has netted 11 times in 11 clashes with, a tally that he is trading at [2.84] to add to.

With Henry expected to play second fiddle to Robin van Persie in the Premier League, this seems an ideal opportunity to give him a run out, especially as their next game at the Emirates is two weeks away and against Manchester United. Even so, it is advisable to wait until the teams are announced before getting involved.

Match odds: Arsenal [1.3], Leeds [11.0], The Draw [6.0]

As mentioned above, Arsenal have wobbled of late, however the same can be said of Leeds, whose 2011-12 trajectory is very similar: shaky start, surge up the table and then a jittery festive period.

A 2-1 victory over Burnley last time out was their first in five outings and a far from emphatic one at that, as they trailed with three minutes left on the clock.

The Gunners won't take Leeds lightly though, as in the last two seasons they have beaten Manchester United and held Tottenham in the FA Cup, as well as forcing Wenger's men into an Elland Road replay with a 1-1 draw at the Emirates in the third round last term.

In spite of that, only the bravest punters will take on the north Londoners given their record in the early stages of the competition. Opta reveal that they have reached the fourth round in each of the last 15 years, a streak no others can match, while they last lost at home in the FA Cup in 1997.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Surprisingly, given Arsenal's reputation for tearing apart lesser sides with attacking swagger and at times being shown up badly by the few superior to them, the goals have far from flown recently.

Their last five fixtures as hosts have all featured two goals or fewer, and they have struck no more than once in any of those, a concern that won't be soothed by the exit of frequent starter Gervinho to the African Nations Cup, while Wenger plans to rest van Persie here.

Thrashings are becoming extinct at the Emirates too, as whereas the Gunners scored four or more seven times in 2009-10 and five in 2010-11, they haven't once this season, only firing three on four occasions. This encounter finished 1-1 last year, so under 2.5 goals looks like terrific value at [2.84].

Arsenal clean sheet

Though they aren't as prolific as they once were, Arsenal have also been less leaky than usual at the back, conceding just four in eight home matches. With Leeds shut out in two of their last four games, and not scoring before the 88th minute in their last five, the [2.26] on the Arsenal clean sheet has back-to-lay appeal at the very least.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [2.84]
Other Recommended Bet: Arsenal to keep a clean sheet @ [2.26]

Michael Cox adds: Leeds are much less solid at the back than in this fixture last year, when Simon Grayson's side held Arsenal to a 1-1 draw - with Cesc Fabregas netting a 90th minute penalty to spare Arsenal's blushes.

Still, Arsenal's record with their 'reserve' Cup side isn't good over the past 12 months - they also struggled to get past Huddersfield and Leyton Orient, and lost away at Ipswich in the Carling Cup.

With Thierry Henry's return set to dominate proceedings at the Emirates and the rest of the game likely to take a back seat early, I predict a slow start here, before Arsenal's class becomes obvious in the second half. With that in mind, Draw/Arsenal in the Half Time/Full Time market at around [5.2] looks good value.

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