The Big Match Tactical View: Estonia v Republic Of Ireland

Euro 2012 / Michael Cox / 11 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Giovanni Trapattoni is likely to be very cautious in the first leg

"The two-legged format should suit Ireland well, and the game in Tallinn seems perfect for the tactics Trapattoni likes to utilise"

Ireland were handed a good draw against Estonia in the play-offs for the 2012 European Championships, but the first leg will probably be slow and lacking in goals, according to Michael Cox

Estonia v Ireland, Friday 19:45, Sky Sports 1.

Match odds: Estonia 3.65, Ireland 2.38, the draw 3.2

Perennially the plucky underdogs, Ireland must feel slightly disorientated coming into this game as the favourites. Having been disappointed at drawing France in the play-off two years ago - and even more disappointed at the outcome of that two-legged tie - a clash with Estonia was as good as Ireland could have hoped for, especially with the second leg being at home.

Drawing solely upon football clichés often produces views opposed to the truth, but for Ireland under Giovanni Trapattoni, it works quite well. Mix a side famed for their 'honesty' and 'work rate' with a wily old tactician with a reputation for defensive football, and you get a hard-working, defensive football side.

The two-legged format should suit Ireland well, and the game in Tallinn seems perfect for the tactics Trapattoni likes to utilise. Ireland were excellent at going away from home and keeping a clean sheet in the qualifiers - four out of five away matches saw the opposition fail to score, and the goalless draw in Moscow shows that Ireland are capable of living with far superior opponents. Compared to Russia, Estonia shouldn't be too much of a problem.

Ireland will set up in a 4-4-2 formation, with Robbie Keane dropping off the main striker upfront. It is a fairly basic, old-fashioned system - Keith Andrews and Glen Whelen do the scrapping in midfield, then get the ball out to Damien Duff and Aiden McGeady on the flanks, and they then run with the ball. The forwards are good at working the channels, which makes longer balls an option, but Trapattoni will probably instruct his side to play a more low-tempo game away from home, content with a static match.

I'd be surprised to see Andrews and Whelan do anything other than sitting deep and protecting the back four. That's their natural role anyway, but with Dmitri Kruglov and Sander Puri likely to start in wide positions and make runs through the middle, Trapattoni will be wary of being overpowered in that central zone.

The identity of Keane's partner is the main question. Kevin Doyle is suspended, which means a choice between Simon Cox and Jon Walters. Cox is the more intelligent and probably a better all-round footballer, but in this situation, Trapattoni will probably favour Walters, who will put himself about, challenge for high balls and all the other qualities you expect from a Stoke striker.

The energy from the front two can become a bit of a problem without the ball, as Russia showed in their 3-2 win at the Aviva Stadium. With the two banks of four instructed to sit deep, the strikers often went pressing the opposition defence, only to leave a huge gap between them and the holding midfielders, meaning the opposition's deep-lying midfielders get a lot of time on the ball, especially if they're playing a system with three players in that zone. Estonia offer little threat from this area, though, with the likes of Aleksandr Dmitrijev and Dmtri Kruglov more about discipline than creativity.

Konstantin Vassiljev is probably Estonia's most talented midfielder and plays behind the main striker, starting in slightly wide positions and trying to drift unnoticed into space between the lines.

Overall, I'm expecting this to be a tight, cagey game, and 0-0 is certainly on the cards, available at [8.0]. I'd be wary of putting all my eggs in one basket, but with Ireland's aforementioned good defensive record away from home, backing them to keep a clean sheet at [2.4] also looks decent.

Recommended bets:
Back 0-0 at [8.0]
Back Ireland to keep a clean sheet at [2.4]