Betfair Official Blog

English Football League

The Betfair Contrarian: Why Watford will be promoted

Click here to view market

Back in November The Betfair Contrarian predicted that Watford, then clear at the top of the table, wouldn't win The Championship. The truth is they won't but The Contrarian does fancy them to still be promoted. Here's why.

Following on from his infamous article back in November as to why Watford wouldn't win The Championship when clear at the top, the Betfair Contrarian now believes they will be promoted via the play-offs...

The Contrarian: Why Watford will be promoted

In amongst the washing machine-style churn at the top of the Championship, such has been the astonishment at Stoke, Hull and Bristol City's unlikely promotion charges, and Crystal Palace's audacious crashing of the top six under Neil Warnock, that Watford have been virtually forgotten about. They are currently [5.8] to be playing Premiership football next season.

Because their form has been so dire over the last six games, the worst in the whole league in fact, nobody thinks they have a chance. Indeed, if the league had started on the first of November, they would be 19th. But the Contrarian believes there will be an open-top bus making its way through the streets of Watford by the end of May as they celebrate an immediate return to the Premier League. Here's why:

They are play-off kings

Since 1996, 12 teams have played in more than one Championship play-off final, but only one has a hundred per cent record: Watford. They have played two, won two.

They know how to do it

It seems a lot longer, but in 2006 Watford's last Coca Cola Championship campaign ended in promotion via the play-offs when they beat Leeds 3-0 at the Millennium Stadium. The same manager that plotted Watford's path through the play-offs in 2006, Adrian Boothroyd, is still there, as are five of the 11 players who started the final the last time round, meaning they boast the play-off experience that the other clubs lack.

League form was irrelevant then too

A lot is being made of the fact Watford have won just one of their last 13, going seven without a clean sheet, and how with form like that they don't stand a chance of winning promotion.

However, in Watford's promotion-winning 2005-06 campaign, they won only three of their last ten and kept just two clean sheets, but they were able to rally in the play-offs and kept three straight clean sheets to win promotion.

Similarly, last season Derby won just two of their last six and threw away an automatic promotion place, but still got the job done in the play-offs.

Poor records against rivals won't matter either

Watford's record against their three likely play-off opponents - Hull City, Bristol City and Crystal Palace - isn't the greatest. They lost their last outings with Hull and Crystal Palace and they've managed a draw and a loss in their games with Bristol City this season.

Watford's opponents in the play-offs in 2005-06 were Crystal Palace and Leeds, against whom they won one and lost three during the regular season, a record that counted for nothing in the post-season.

They are likely to get the best semi-final draw

Watford look likely to finish in fifth and therefore should face Bristol City in the semi-finals, which is as good a draw as they could ask for.

Bristol City are tied with Watford at the bottom of the form league having won just one in six. Crystal Palace in contrast have lost just one of their last ten while Hull have lost one in eight.

Another factor that should count in Watford's favour is that four times in the last six years, the team which has finished fifth has beaten the team finishing fourth in the play-off semi.

Watford are superb on the road

Adrian Boothroyd's team boast the best away record in the Championship, losing just four of 22 away games. In five of the last eight seasons, the team with the best away record of the four play-off sides has won the play-off final.