The Betfair Contrarian: Why Leeds will miss out on promotion

English Football League / The Betfair Contrarian / 04 May 2010 / 1

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The Betfair Contrarian expects more disappointment for Leeds

"The three-time top-flight champions have been involved in play-offs in three of the last four seasons all without glory."

Since their dramatic fall from grace, Leeds United have come close to winning promotion on a number of occasions. Getting back into the Championship would be a first step on the road back to glory but the Betfair Contrarian is predicting more disappointment for the Yorkshire club.

Leeds are without doubt one of the most contrary sides of all time. Even at their peak they regularly treated their fans to a cup of cold failure. Despite screwing up again away to Charlton last weekend, Leeds are still the favourites to join Norwich in the Championship next season. And not just marginal favourites either, but whopping 1.28 frontrunners, which means that they can be laid at the fantastic price of 1.3. Heres why the Contrarian expects Leeds to somehow contrive a fourth successive season in League One...

Their form has been dreadful

As Auld Lang Syne was ringing out across the country, Leeds were eight points clear at the top of League One, 11 ahead of third-placed Norwich and 20 clear of Millwall. Then news leaked of a Jermaine Beckford transfer request, just days after his 20th goal of the season secured a famous FA Cup triumph for the Whites at Old Trafford, and it's all been downhill since. They've won just seven of their 22 league games in 2010, and if the season had started on January 1, Simon Grayson's men would be down in 11th, having collected the same number of points this calendar year as potentially League Two-bound Tranmere, and substantially fewer than all of their promotion rivals.

They'll miss out on Saturday

Of course, the struggles of the last few months would be instantly forgotten if they beat Bristol Rovers at the weekend to secure second but it's not going to happen. The Pirates will be motivated by the chance to grab ninth place, their best league finish in a decade, and although they've been in poor form lately, that's not proven a handicap when meeting Leeds recently. The Yorkshiremen have lost two of their last three games, against struggling Gillingham and out-of-form Charlton (who had won just one of their previous four) while their only win in recent weeks came at home to eight-man MK Dons.

Every other promotion contender has momentum

Leeds are stuck in a rut, yet all four of their promotion rivals head into the play-offs with a wind behind them. Millwall have been the second best side in the division in 2010 and Swindon are shattering all expectations with their best points haul at this level since 1996, having spent the last two seasons in the bottom-half. Charlton, despite underwhelming in recent months, have fresh hope after their big win against Leeds, and Huddersfield are top of the form table with six wins in seven.

And all four have a good record against Leeds

If Leeds end up in the play-offs not only will their nerves be jangling violently, but they have also failed to defeat any of their potential play-off opponents this season. Swindon thumped the Whites 3-0 both home and away, and Millwall also did the double over them, as well as overcoming them in last year's play-offs. Charlton drew at Elland Road and were victorious at The Valley (like Swindon, they didnt concede in either game) and both of Leeds meetings with Yorkshire rivals Huddersfield ended 2-2.

The Whites play-off record is hopeless

As if Leeds results against the clubs they need to conquer weren't cause enough for concern, the play-off picture grows truly bleak with a glance at their recent record in the post-season spectacular. The three-time top-flight champions have been involved in play-offs in three of the last four seasons all without glory. They were taken apart by Watford 3-0 in the 2006 Championship final, lost the 2008 League One decider against Doncaster after an unconvincing semi-final win over Carlisle and were then beaten over two legs by Millwall last May. In their history, Leeds have participated four times without once earning promotion.

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(1)

Scott | 08 May 2010

Rubbish rubbish article, if this was printed i wouldnt even use it as toilet paper. LEEDS UNITED GO UP! READ THAT AGAIN.....

LEEDS UNITED PROMOTED.

Whoever wrote this had better retire from the betting industry and go work in your local mcdonalds because that is all you are worth!

MARCHING ON TOGETHER!