Promotion Betting: Fairytale ending for Windass and Hull City?

English Football League / Richard Walker / 23 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

Richard Walker previews what is generally regarded as the richest game in football as Dean Windass' Hull City take on Bristol City at Wembley on Saturday for that final Premiership spot

Which of these two 'unfancied' sides will hold their nerve best at Wembley?

It's the richest game in football, so they say, with a trip to see a generous rich uncle for the winners...and a night in with the poor relations for the losers.

If the semi-finals were tough going in terms of likely occurrences, then surely these three Wembley show-pieces ahead of us this weekend aren't going to turn the tide of predictability back in punters' favour at all.

Nerve, a word already mentioned earlier, is quite simply going to be the vitiating factor. You might argue that the team which gets ahead might go on to win but if they lose their bottle while their opponents remained composed, the game will be far from over.

With that in mind, I'm happy to offer up the fanciful notion of Bristol/Hull or Hull/Bristol in the 90-minute Half Time/Full Time market. Both can be backed at around the [32.0] mark - don't say I didn't warn you!

It seems fair to point out that most of the normal markets reflect the action in the first 90 minutes - and that you'll have to be ready in-running to avail of any extra-time backing or laying opportunities.

One list which is unaffected by the duration of the final is Promotion 2007/08. Bristol are [2.3] to back while it's [1.75] about Hull. There's absolutely nothing to split these sides, nothing worthwhile anyhow, so if you can get a slightly bigger price on one than the other and you like to cheer a particular side on as a neutral then take it.

According to layers, 1-1 seems the most likely scoreline at full-time, priced the shortest of any options to back at odds of [7.4]. Interestingly, that slightly contradicts the Match Odds options which see Bristol at [3.35] to back, Hull a [2.4] chance and the Draw [3.4].

Sorry, I can't see a difference of nearly a whole point between these two so my (albeit tentative) suggestion would be to lay Hull at a liability of [2.42]. I've done much better when tipping a lay in these treacherous play-offs so I'm migrating back to that policy, to give the relative security of two results working for me.

More astute readers of the game than I might be pointing to a wealth of attacking options at Phil Brown's disposai - not to mention the unfinished fairytale for the two Hull-born lads, Dean Windass and Nick Barmby, but football ain't that sweet or John Terry's penalty would've gone in, wouldn't it?

Hull might have Fraizer Campbell's goals to point to but Gary Johnson's Robins are perhaps more dangerous in that they have match-winning individuals. So while the top scorer charts may not be full of Bristol names, there's quite a few players with a few goals - and folk like Lee Trundle, David Noble and Ivan Sproule have it within themselves to do something special.

And it's Trundle I'm focusing on among the goalscoring options. A slow burner would be the kind way to describe his progress at Ashton Gate since a £1million summer move from Swansea City. Avail of him in the First Goalscorer market by all means but I'm a confirmed fan of the more conservative To Score (at any time) list at what will be odds ripe for backing I'm sure. He has that magic - and that's what wins finals.

Will there be loads of goals? Well there might be, but, like Wednesday night, even Man United's relatively early opener didn't bring with it a flood of others. The Under 2.5 goals odds of [1.72] to back look a fair reflection to me, with Overs at [2.32] but I have no strong opinion either way. I do realise, by the way, that for either of my flights of Half Time/Full Time fancy to materialise there has to be three goals but hey, we're allowed a little contradiction in our betting lives at those sort of odds, aren't we?

However you end up shaping your investment and interest for this one, I have a feeling it'll be quite a game. It is, after all, quite a prize.