Non-Televised Premiership Matches: Spurs to build on midweek win, Villa to hold Chelsea

English Football League / Robert Hughes / 03 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Robert Hughes looks at this weekend's non-televised Premiership matches which include a Drogba-less Chelsea in danger of dropping points at home to Villa and a Spurs side looking to build on their positive midweek UEFA Cup result.

Sunderland v Arsenal

Sunderland lost at Villa last week and have had a stop-start season so far. Their home form last year was what kept them up, winning 30 points at home but just nine away - however this year they have lost two out of their three home games. Arsenal's home defeat to Hull last week was embarrassing, but although it was not their best performance, they dominated the game and should have won fairly easily. Confidence has been restored with a 4-0 win against Porto in midweek, and prior to the Hull defeat they had won impressively at both Blackburn and Bolton. Even so, the [7.2] available for a home win is worth a look, as Sunderland do have it in them to pull off a surprise win, especially at home. With Arsenal having scored 12 goals and Sunderland conceded 8 so far, Over 2.5 Goals should be backed at [2.0].

West Brom v Fulham

Albion will be happy with their start to the season, and they sit comfortably in 12th place. Last term, they picked up an impressive 44 points at home, scoring 51 goals in the process. This season, though, they have lost two out of three at The Hawthorns - although their confidence will be high having won at Middlesbrough last week. Having made a decent start, Fulham will be looking to get back on track after two successive defeats, but they have lost both of their away games so far. The [4.0] available for the draw looks a decent price, and with neither team particularly prolific so far, a 1-1 scoreline can be backed at [7.0].

Wigan v Middlesbrough

Wigan were understandably delighted with their victory over Man City last week, but it was their first win at home in three attempts. After a decent start, Gareth Southgate's side have now suffered three consecutive defeats and find themselves just outside the relegation zone. They have lost all three of their away matches, and they won only three away from home last season. With Middlesbrough looking to steady the ship and lacking a cutting edge without the injured Tuncay, I would expect this to be a fairly tight affair, so the [3.45] available for the draw is worth considering. All nine of the goals Middlesbrough have let in this season have been conceded in the second half, so you might also want to consider Draw / Wigan at [6.0] in the Half Time / Full Time market.

Chelsea v Aston Villa

This will be a real test of Villa's Top 4 aspirations. Their confidence will be high after three successive wins, and they have won two out of three away this season. Chelsea are one of only two unbeaten teams left in the division, and are defending an unbeaten home League record which stretches back to February 2004. However, having already lost Deco through injury, their attacking threat will be reduced even further by the absence of Didier Drogba, injured in Romania on Wednesday. With this in mind, and taking into account Villa's form, especially away from home, I would consider the draw at [4.3]. However, Villa's last three games have all finished 2-1, so if you fancy a home win by the same scoreline, this outcome can be backed at [8.6].

Man City v Liverpool

Despite the hype surrounding their takeover, Man City have lost two games out of three since they became supposedly the richest club in the world. The other result was a 6-0 win over Portsmouth, but they won't have the same freedom against an unbeaten Liverpool team, who have conceded only two goals in six games, and have won two out of three away from home. This fixture finished 0-0 last season, and although City have scored 16 goals so far, Liverpool have hit the net only seven times, and their strong defence should help make this a low-scoring affair. With this in mind, I'd consider backing the draw at [3.4]. Liverpool have scored six of their seven goals so far this season in the second half, and Man City / Draw can be backed at [20], or alternatively, Draw / Liverpool is available at [6.6].

Portsmouth v Stoke

Hugely unpredictable this season, Portsmouth have won three and lost three so far - including a 3-0 win at Everton and a 0-6 defeat to Man City. Having overcome Tottenham and kept a clean sheet last week, they will hope that their erratic defence has finally settled down. Although Stoke have given some impressive performances this season, they have not won in their last four games, so they may feel they need to do approach this game with more ambition than they did at Anfield, where they won their only away point so far. Matches involving these two have produced an average of 3.17 goals per game, so I'd definitely consider the [2.06] available for Over 2.5 Goals. Like Liverpool, Stoke have scored six of their seven goals in the second half, so the [17.5] on offer for Portsmouth / Draw might be worth a look.

Tottenham v Hull

Tottenham's progress in the UEFA Cup may have eased the pressure on Juande Ramos slightly, but this remains a must-win game for the home side, who are bottom of the table with no wins and only four goals scored. In contrast, Hull pulled off the surprise of the season so far with victory at Spurs' greatest rivals last week. Tottenham have lost two out of three at home, while Hull are still unbeaten away. However, the quality players acquired by Spurs this summer must surely hit form at some point, and despite Hull's heroics at The Emirates, this looks like a good opportunity for them to do so. A 2-0 home victory therefore looks a reasonable proposition, at [9.2]. Of the 11 goals Hull have conceded this season, 9 have been in the second half, so Draw / Tottenham can be backed at [5.5].