English Football League / Ian Lamont / 12 April 2012 /

Ian Lamont knows Rotherham's chances of beating Shrewsbury are reflected in the price but it's a gamble worth taking. So Rotherham it is, plus the remainder of the weekends' best bets.

Barnet [2.12] Hereford [3.7] Draw [3.45] (Friday)

I'm convinced Hereford don't have the quality to win this, but while their price seems long for laying, I dig from my memory a discussion I once had with my wife over a snooker bet. "If you're convinced someone won't win it, you should lay them whatever the price". Mark Williams duly failed to win the World title. So, if my lay is successful on Friday I'll be able to fund her a gamble on Always Right in the Grand National! Richard O'Kelly's Bulls have taken one point from six games and suffered three straight away defeats. Their manager bemoans key decisions going against them. But rather than indicating hope, that lack of the rub of the green can really rock confidence. The hosts have suffered themselves recently, a reasonable run ended bluntly by a stream roller of a fixture list against four sides in the top six. Four defeats ensued. Izale McLeod needs to find his scoring touch again, perhaps with the help of tricky Ricky Holmes. A low-scoring scrap seems certain.

Back under 2.5 goals at [1.89]
Lay Hereford at [3.7]

Macclesfield [3.7] Crewe [2.14] draw [3.55]

A fellow pundit with whom I am in regular discussion insists Macclesfield are a lay for relegation, but I can't agree. Not with a run of one point in six and not with their run-in, starting with Crewe, who are unbeaten in 12, winning six. Considering the form, the price on the Railwaymen is on the large side, especially when you consider they still have all to play for - a play-off place - and the biggest of upward curves (just three defeats in 19 games in 2012).

Back Crewe to win at Macclesfield at [2.14]

Aldershot [2.18] Dagenham [3.6] Draw [3.4]

Dean Holdsworth's side blew their play-off chances at Easter, losing at home to Port Vale. It really didn't matter what then happened at Plymouth, which should have proved the harder task, the Pilgrims fighting off relegation. The Shots duly lost that, too. A run of great promise has therefore ended at the worst possible time, making the season's end full of dead rubbers. Not so for John Still's men who, while now clear of relegation I'm sure, have the bit between their teeth - and momentum. The pure pride of finishing in a respectable middle third of the table is a possibility, especially given AFC Wimbledon's and Bristol Rovers' faltering fortunes. Points wise, they are joint top of the six-game form table. Victory at inconsistent Gillingham last weekend should give the buoyant Daggers hope of at least a point.

Lay the Shots at [2.18]

Shrewsbury [1.96] Rotherham [4.4] Draw [3.4]

The temptation to back Rotherham is simply too hard to resist. The price is huge - rightly so in many ways. Graham Turner's side are unbeaten at home this season, only drawing five from 20 games. Overall form is rock solid (two defeats in 16 matches and five wins in seven). This outsiders' chance bet is based on those strange quirks that make sport unpredictably loveable. Rotherham are back in form. Three straight wins puts them back on the coat tails of the play-offs, just a few weeks after defeat at Crawley looked to have squashed that possibility with a 3-0 win. Now here's the rub. That's the same team whose manager, Steve Evans, has just quit for the Millers - bizarrely in the eyes of many. New manager syndrome means the players will be motivated to impress. And now for the killer. Evans' old club, lying fourth, would benefit greatly from a Shrews defeat - giving the new boss extra incentive to stir his new troops, if, as he says, he retains friends in Sussex. Laying Shrewsbury, covering the draw, is plausible. I repeat it's a long shot, but Shrewsbury I reckon have to lose once at home this season. Weirder things have happened than this being it.

Take a chance on Rotherham to win at [4.4]

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