League Two Preview: Back firing shots and irresistible bees to prick Wycombe bubble

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 11 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Aldershot boss has created an environment where young players thrive and, if they can overcome travel fatigue, they could be candidates for promotion, says Ian Lamont.

It is tempting to fall into an old gambling trap this week - one of looking at the odds and filling your head with notions of [150.00] accumulators. The more disciplined way I have learnt to put into practice is to rationalise outcomes in a division then seek out the value bets.

When I saw one bookmaker offering [3.5] on Aldershot Town winning at Luton Town this weekend, alongside Brentford at [4.0] to win at Wycombe, I had to take a few deep breaths. I also had to stop myself reaching for my wallet to smack on a tasty double before I had thought it through.

Even my considered view is that the price on The Shots seems enormous. They have confidence after victories over Bradford and Darlington for a start. And here are a confident bunch of young men, bolstered by a few older, experienced heads such as striker John Grant and defender Ricky Newman, having the time of their lives with little real pressure to deliver another promotion after reclaiming Football League status for the area.

Inspired by Gary Waddock, a manager who as a former QPR youth coach has a track record of getting the best out of young players, it is the sort of environment in which the likes of Louis Soares and Ben Harding can thrive - and give the fans the bonus of another promotion chase.

If they are to have a rewarding season, they must make the relatively short trips to the likes of Luton count, because the division has just nine teams out of 24 that could be considered Southern. That means a lot of travelling, which is both physically tiring and costly. Being based in the North West would be more helpful.

By contrast, opponents Luton are under pressure to claw back a 30-point deficit and have not won at home yet. They have pinched seven points rather than garnered them easily. A new team - with eight players shed in the summer and 11 new faces brought in on the eve of the campaign - is still gelling. The loss of captain Kevin Nicholls (in from Preston) with a hamstring injury is a huge blow. Striker Sam Parkin, rebuilding his career after a serious ankle injury, is a danger, but Shots keeper Nicky Bull can keep him at bay and Aldershot are to be backed at [3.55].

Similar to The Shots, The Bees are buzzing. The Brentford Bees, that is, who are irresistible at [4.1] - a value bet to beat the league leaders for the second week running on the back of beating Dagenham.

Charlie MacDonald, now at his 10th club, is capable of nudging the 20-goals a season mark, but it is encouraging for Andy Scott's side that former Grays Athletic man Glenn Poole has scored more from midfield. Most teams need more than one player to contribute goals regularly to be successful.

But what of opponents Wycombe, kings of the narrow away wins at big prices in recent weeks? Several team bosses or players have spoken about their sides being on the verge of a resounding win to kick-start their season. Barnet, Lincoln and this week Rochdale spring to mind. With Wycombe this weekend it could be the reverse - a defeat that will clear the way for a renewed surge to greater triumphs.

A tightly-knit defensive unit marshalled by David McCracken has given the team a platform for hard-earned victories based around canny set pieces. But that's a high-risk strategy of patience which needs a bit of luck and Brentford have the bravado to puncture the bubble.

If it's a home banker you want at a decent price, take Rotherham to return to victorious ways at home to Rochdale. Defeat last weekend at Chesterfield has pushed the Millers' price out to [2.24], but last week's loss was purely down to the bad luck of Mark Robins winning the manager of the month title - a curse if ever there was one.

The teams Dagenham have beaten this season will not trouble the top of the division come May. But the Daggers' position at the top did highlight the emergence of Solomon Taiwo, another gem nurtured by John Still. Chesterfield visit on Saturday and the teams could well cancel each other out at [3.5] to complete a weekend of calculated value.