English Football League / Ian Lamont / 06 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Ian Lamont tells us why he hates the play-off system ahead of telling us who your money should be on as Shrewsbury, Bury, Gillingham and Rochdale try to ensure promotion to Division One.

I hate the play-offs. Not because I'm a football purist. Not because they give a second chance to those who start the season badly. Nor is it because, on occasion, teams that are clearly the best of the four over a league season don't always win the damned playoffs.

I hate them because, as a gambler, there is no discernable pattern in any division to six or 10-game form, season head-to-heads or even cup fortunes as a guide. I know this because I carried out some extensive research a few years ago across the top five divisions.

There was one statistic that stuck out - in "division four" as we purists like to call it. The team finishing closest to automatic promotion went up for something like 15 out of 16 years running. But this was seven years ago and oft beaten since. In any case, past performance, as financial advisers are fond of saying, is no guide to the future.

Anyone finding a pattern, do leave a comment, along with the answer to my quiz question: which team were the first beneficiaries of the division four play-offs in 1987?

A season's performances have to count for something, however. Bury have the edge and are over-priced in the outrights at pushing [3.85] in the division the betting industry find hardest to call, with barely room for a litmus paper between the four. I make Bury [3.2] at most and Rochdale the outsiders.

It comes down to regularity of team selection (with a nod to the luck required for injuries). Alan Knill seems to know what his best team is, judging by 11 Bury players starting more than 30 times. You wouldn't argue with a line-up of Brown, Scott, Futcher, Sodje, Buchanan, Dawson, Bennett, Barry-Murphy, Jones, Bishop and Morrell. With Haslam replacing poor Scott and, of late, Welsh and Hurst nudging out subs Dawson and Morrell, that's a pretty consistent tight-knit core group.

Maybe it might focus a few minds if, like in the Champions League, squads could only have 24 players. Alan Knill's side is the case for that, while Thursday night hosts Shrewsbury clearly had a wide pool of players to choose from - and more cash to splash on Grant Holt at the start. That doesn't always make for the best team cohesion. Just five players have started more than 30 times for Paul Simpson: keeper Daniels, Coughlan, Davies, Murray and Holt. OK, another eight have begun 20 or more games and maybe the team has come together at the end.

I expect a tight first leg. Shrewsbury's home form is good and Bury's away not too bad. Bury, if they are to lose, will only go down by one. I don't expect them to win because, while they can dazzle teams for large periods of a game, a pretty level for and against goals record indicates they perhaps don't have that killer instinct away from home. The Shakers know how to keep things tight against the big teams in the division. I don't expect more than two goals, so back under 2.5 at [1.75].

The others I expect to reach Wembley are Gillingham. We can probably expect more goals between two footballing sides at Rochdale, but the Kent club again have the advantage for consistency.

From his team selections, I'm not convinced Keith Hill knows what his best XI is, whether Adam Le Fondre and Adam Rundle and Will Buckley truly fit into it or not. A potent trio, they should really fit in. OK, injuries, suspensions, fatigue take their toll and maybe there is a little experimentation or tactics against certain opposition. But then again Alan Hansen would have it that Liverpool have been a far better team when Rafa hasn't tinkered.

Again, from a Shrews-sized squad six Dale players have begun more than 30 games. It gives the feeling of a team undercooked, especially when up against the nine from Gillingham who have started that many. Throw a little cup pedigree into the mix (it must count for something) when a slightly under-strength Gills acquitted themselves well against Aston Villa, seven clean sheets in 13 games and Mark Stimson's southern travellers look good to repeat last weekend's victory (both teams much-changed) at [3.45]. I quite fancy draw/Gillingham for the half time/full time at [8.2]

They are almost that to win the play-offs, for which they can be taken at [3.85] in a "portfolio" approach with Bury at the same price. If - I mean when - they both get through you'll end up making more whoever wins against the "to qualify" prices of evens on the pair.

Best bet: Under 2.5 goals Shrewsbury v Bury, [1.75]
Bury to be promoted [3.85] in a portfolio with Gillingham to be promoted [3.85]
Gillingham to win at Rochdale [3.45]
Value bet draw/Gillingham half-time/full at [8.2]