English Football League / Alan Dudman / 22 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Millwall's no-nonsense hardmen aren't underestimating Scunthorpe and, even though the Lions' fans will transform Wembley into the Den, Alan Dudman believes that this one could go the distance. Best Bet: Back 0-0 @ [10.00].

Millwall [2.58] v Scunthorpe United [3.05], the draw [3.25]

With Leeds United and MK Dons both bombing out in the semi-finals, Sunday's League One play-off final throws together the two unfancied sides to compete for the riches of the Championship next season.

I say unfancied, they were the two outsiders of the quarter to reach the final, and although I was keen on neither, you cannot argue with the facts. Scunny got off to a flying start and were near enough there for the whole season, whilst Millwall just kept going and going. Both never traded above [18.00] to gain promotion, and I say good luck for Sunday.

Having watched all the semi-finals, I cannot declare they were the best games I have ever seen, and I am pretty sure if MK Dons and Scunthorpe were still playing from last Friday night, they still wouldn't have scored. Anyway, I was glued to the TV and it was a rare opportunity to really delve into the two finalists. Mind you, I had to Sky Plus 'Britain's Next Top Model'. That is unmissable viewing.

Millwall have been turned over twice this season by Scunthorpe, and Lions boss Kenny Jackett said: "We're not underestimating them, they are a very good side. Both our games against them were very close, and were won by the odd goal." However, this is Wembley, and to tie in all those old cliches, 'form goes out of the window'.

The Londoners are just a no-nonsense outfit. Against Leeds, Jackett got the
tactics absolutely spot on. They killed the game in midfield, they spolied and pestered and got Leeds to adopt a route-one approach. That suited them down to the ground as the two centre-backs Whitbread and Craig just nailed everything that was thrown at them in the air.

Indeed Whitbread typifies their hard, no-nonsense, stand firm approach. The bleached-blonde defender was stone cold out on the pitch after a collision at Elland Road and it looked horrendous. He was not moving. Five minutes later, he is up heading and flying into tackles. I wasn't quite that hard on the pitch!

The Lions play 4-4-2. Very strong in the air as mentioned, with two solid full-backs in the shape of Frampton and Dunne. Their midfield is not flashy, but pace on the break can come from Lewis Grabban. And up top Neil Harris and Gray Alexander will work their socks off.

The team news will be a case of 'as you were' in the semis. Striker Jason Price is still out with a hamstring injury, whilst club captain Paul Robinson is fighting to just be involved.

Scunthorpe, meanwhile, have already been involved in one Wembley game this season - it was the JPT defeat to Luton - and I am sure there are positives to be gleaned from such a game.

The Iron are a very fit, stamina laden team. High energy, attack and attack has been the mantra. But sadly we didn't see it over the two semi-final games. I associate them with goals, but it was their defence that won the semi.

Boss Nigel Adkins changed the formation last Friday, and I am sure he will change it again for Sunday as leading goalscorer Gary Hooper has shrugged off a groin injury and is ready to return to the side. He was sorely missed, and he has netted 30 times this season. He'll be fresh which is a good thing, as it is Scunthorpe's 60th game of the season. Fellow forward Ben May has a thigh strain, whilst the left-back crisis has eased somewhat with only Marcus Williams a doubt.

One key point to make is about the atmosphere at Wembley this Sunday. Millwall had sold over 40,000 of their 49.500 allocation by Thursday, whilst the Iron have managed to flog just 8,000. It will seem like a home game for the Londoners, but Scunny can fight and rely on their
team spirit.

I can't see too many goals, and those markets will be heavily concentrated on. The best in-running play looks the 0-0 at [10.00]. I am also interested in the price on offer for the under 1.5 goals - although it's always a pretty tough market. But the [3.00] on offer gives us some room for manouevere. The 'method of victory' market also excites - and may be tempted to get involved with that regarding penalties after the first 25 minutes.