English Football League / Ian Lamont / 21 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Ian Lamont talks stats, trends, head-to-heads, form, Grant Holt and Simeon Jackson in order tofind the best bets out there as these two sides clash for a place in League One next season. Best bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ [1.66].

Omens. Statistics. Trends. Among those three mindfields of false historic guidance we punters often use to blind ourselves about the future, one pointer sticks out for the League Two play-off final.

Back in 1989, Crystal Palace lost 9-0 to Liverpool in the league. A few months later that season, in April 1990, they beat them in the FA Cup semi-final. Such a hiding is chastening and gives the losers that little bit of extra resilience not to lose at all, let alone be thrashed.

Gillingham suffered a 7-0 reverse at Shrewsbury last autumn, when the Kent side's boss Mark Stimson came under increasing pressure from his own fans. But the team proved they were not a bad squad, drawing 2-2 when the Shrews visited Priestfield and then finishing solidly in the play-off zone before dismissing Rochdale over two legs, 2-1 after a 0-0 draw away.

Those results might mean little to the Shrews management, but Gillingham need no extra incentive to concentrate, close down and scrap for everything than in drawing from that 7-0 heartache.

They might show one change from the play-off semi-finals and start with Mark McCammon instead of Dennis Oli. Who starts upfront alongside Simeon Jackson remains to be seen but either way I expect a tight game against Paul Simpson's men, who will be without suspended Steve Leslie ( sent off during the semi-final victory over Bury) Mike Jackson with a long-term injury, and possibly Dave Hibbert (foot).

I expect another close encounter. I certainly fancy under 2.5 goals for 90 minutes at [1.66]. For some reason I have had 1-1 stuck in my head since the finalists were known - and that is veritably worth a punt at [6.5].

After drawing so many towards the end of the season - eight of the last 12 - Shrewsbury have an air of rigidity about them, if not free-flowing strike power. The draw at [3.3] appeals, while I still hold a [3.85] voucher, put on before the semi-finals, on Gillingham to be promoted and it will take some pursuading to deter me from the Kent side going up. They are now [1.87] to be promoted, with Shrewsbury [2.12].

So who will score? Grant Holt, scorer of 20 league goals after being bought for £180,000 last summer, will be a marked man. I have been to watch many big name strikers at many levels of the game this season, and I'm yet to see any of them score, precisely because the opposition know all about them.

It might sound like clutching at straws, but Holt has scored only seven of his 20 league goals away from home this season, and only two strikes in the last 10 games. Naturally, he will be the favourite of the Shrews to score first - at about [8.0] - but I feel midfielder Ben Davies, with 13 (albeit with a similarly barren spell of late) is better value at about [13.0].

Amongst the Gills', Simeon Jackson is the hungry up-and-coming player for the big game in my opinion and I shall be looking to back him at [8.5]. The 22-year-old scored against Aston Villa in the FA Cup on top of his 19 league strikes. If you want a longer shot, goal chance supplier Curtis Weston at [17.0] pops up with one of his own every so often.

One possibility is Jackson repeating his double against Rochdale and the Gills winning 2-0, a consideration at [13.0]. But if the game does finish 1-1, or even level then the "method of victory" market is the one to have had a wager in. I'll be looking for [12.0] on Gillingham to win in extra time. Given Luke Daniels' prowess at saving penalties against Bury, if you fancy victory by shoot-out, take the Shrews at [11.0].

For an insider's look at Shrewsbury's preparation for the match have a read of Ben Herd's Wednesday column. Ben will also be penning a dairy of his play-off final day experiences on Sunday night.