League Two Betting Preview: Mariners harbour thoughts of survival

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 16 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

It's been a tight season in League Two with not a soggy fish and chip paper between some sides. So it takes a brave man to make the picks for this weekend's action... Ian Lamont is that man. Best Bet: Morecambe to beat Notts County at [1.85].

One national newspaper's pools prediction has 11 League Two games this Saturday down for a home win, the exception being a draw for Chester v Bournemouth (and if you reckon you can fathom that slugfest with any certainty I've got a number for the men in white coats!).

Six teams odds-on to win in a division that has been very tight all year sets alarm bells ringing. For example, I can't back Brentford - who will go up with victory - at [1.5] against Accrington, who are more than capable party poopers, have decent recent results and come from the North West, against whose sides the Bees have slipped up this season.

But two odds-on teams do take my fancy, Grimsby [1.82] and Morecambe [1.85].

The Mariners have much to play for and could easily put some much-needed daylight between themselves and Chester. They will be eager to do so before the trip next week to Bournemouth, who could be sucked back into the mire, especially with Eddie Howe's side facing a trip to Morecambe on the final day.

Grimsby's opponents Port Vale already "look on their holidays" as some like to put it and, frankly, have been pretty disappointing all season, certainly if you ask their fans. The home side have already been backed in from evens with some bookmakers. Keeper Wayne Henderson, on loan from Preston, was their hero at Notts County last week and with the likes of striker Barry Conlon, another loanee who was occasionally booed by his own fans at Bradford, in their ranks they can turn their desperation to avoid the drop into three points. Vale have not won in six games, scoring just two goals. With Grimsby likely to keep matters tight, a side bet on under 2.5 goals is in order at [1.85].

At Christie Park, Morecambe still harbouring thoughts of the play-offs. With many teams above them drawing, it might just come to pass. But only if they defeat Notts County, who have one win in 10 games and are another side with nothing to play for.

Elsewhere I'm prepared to seek a bit of value. If you like a spurious stat - a side relegated wins the next match - you might fancy Luton at more than [3.3] at Barnet. Luton's 30-point deduction has made them hard to assess on a weekly basis this season, but they have decent recent form. That might be attributable to their Wembley appearance and victory for the Hatters seems a big ask against a Bees side in good touch, with Paul Furlong and John O'Flynn striking out for goal.

My seeking of the best home value takes me to Victoria Road, where Dagenham's John Still reckons the hosts have an outside chance of the play-offs. So they have to prove it with victory at home to Darlington at [2.26]. The momentum is with the Daggers, who have plenty of firepower to gain a third home win on the spin. Midfielder Matt Ritchie, on nine goals, will want to reach double figures to match team-mates Paul Benson (16), Sam Saunders (11) and Ben Strevens (12).

Coming out all guns blazing is the way to dent Bradford's fragile confidence further. Stuart McCall's Bantams recently dropped from the play-off zone and have three points from eight matches.

The last bet is another draw for Chesterfield at [3.55], who have finished level in the past five, which has served them well like a submarine gradually moving to the surface. They have poked their heads up into the play-off picture so desired by boss Lee Richardson. It is a sort of "momentum" - the word Richardson used this week to try to urge his troops on to victory against Gillingham. And level pegging again will surely do for now, what with Shrewsbury unlikely to gain victory away at Rotherham.

Dennis Oli's winner for the Kent club at Dagenham on Monday came very late, and Paul Stimson's side will do well to repeat such a trick at the Recreation Ground. But, solid at the back and with John Nutter creating plenty of chances, the visitors should have enough to match Chesterfield.

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Posthumous analysis of last week's draws/lay away experiment: There were three draws (Brentford (3.35) Chesterfield (3.45), Lincoln (3.55) at Saturday morning prices), leaving the 12-team experiment -£3.30 to a level Betfair £2 stake. Laying all the way sides, even with losers Accrington (3.6 - £5.20 liability) and Macclesfied (3.45 - £4.90 liability) made a £9.90 profit - all calculations excluding Betfair commission.