English Football League / Ian Lamont / 20 November 2008 /

Ian Lamont talks us through the League Two matches worth having a betting interest on this weekend.

Head should always rule the heart in betting. Several sages told us that this week as they implored us to fill our wallets on the back of a Germany victory against England. Didn't quite work that one, but it is a general rule of thumb.

So well done Aldershot Town, who secured an "against all known form" win in their FA Cup replay at Rotherham. But even a first win after eight straight away defeats won't persuade me to part with my pennies at [2.5] - even though the Shots face crisis club Chester City. Oh no. If I do that Mark "third time I hope I get it" Wright will only sign a couple of experienced cloggers between publication and kick-off, or the Hampshire side will all go down with a plague of Biblical proportions. A bit of cup glory means nothing in the league, especially when the next cup fixture is but a week away.

Separating the league from cup form is crucial to a successful punt I have found down the years. Sometimes it needs a little mixing with another trend: treat with care any team still in the cup, because no player wants to get injured in a league game before one of the biggest days of his lives. This is especially the case if the opponents are from a higher division. Avoiding the pre-banana skin banana skin comes down to stern management.

I'm not too worried about Wycombe, for example, who face Eastwood next week but before that a poor Port Vale side this week and should be backed at [1.6]. The Chairboys have an excellent rudder in the form of manager Peter Taylor to continue to steer them towards that 21-game unbeaten record. With young Ross Davidson suspended in midfield and striker Luke Rodgers unhappy on the bench and unsettled by Yeovil's public admiration the Valiants have enough problems.

Normally I would consider Bradford's [3.1] a big price and very backable against a Rotherham side who have lost their way a little in the league. But even with hard man Stuart McCall at the helm it seems a little of a tall order for the visitors to gain all three points. The Bantams have stuttered a little of late with just two league wins from six. They also face higher league opposition in Leyton Orient on Saturday week. McCall eying loan signings at this stage smacks a little of desperation.

Rotherham, however, have their own problems, with keeper Andy Warrington out for six weeks with a shoulder injury and no on-loan keeper in the offing to cover for him. Warrington played in the 4-0 humiliation at Gillingham last week, which can be put down to Rotherham having reached a little plateau after clawing back their points deduction and The Gills' vastly improved form.

Rotherham demanded cup runs of their players this season and are out of the major ones, so will want to climb that table. The draw seems most likely at [3.35].

You might have guessed by now, but I'm a form student. And I think you will struggle to find a team in better points or scoring form than Chesterfield. Jamie Ward is in such hot form the Spireites are trying to tie the 22-year-old to a longer deal after six strikes as Lee Richardson's men have bagged 20 in six games. They should be backed at [1.75] at home to Accrington and have another bet in the over [2.5] goals market.

Again, Bury are a team in form - losing form. Five straight home defeats make a team who showed much promise early this season a lay at [2.25] when they host Gillingham, who have improved under Mark Stimson after a start that some said put his position under pressure.

His critics earlier this season should remember that relegated teams rarely bounce back straight away - in any division. Bury might be a good footballing side, but they need to heed Alan Knill's call for a hard edge - and he must play Andy Morrell and Andy Bishop together, not replace one with the other at half time, which was surely a key contribution to Grimsby winning a first match for Mike Newell last Saturday.

Recommendations:

Chesterfield at [1.84], and over 2.5 goals
Wycombe at [1.7]
Rotherham v Bradford draw at [3.4]
Lay Bury at [2.25]

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