English Football League / Ian Lamont / 24 December 2009 /

Ian Lamont picks his best bets from the Boxing Day League Two action where the stalemate figures prominently.

History, reputation, form - a triumvirate to avoid on Boxing Day, traditionally, but issues that cannot be avoided in League Two right now.

For many, a manager is only as good as his last job, not his entire career. Mark Hughes, Hans Backe and Ian McParland are clear exceptions, given the madness that comes with the money at Manchester City and Notts County.

On reputation, the Magpies could do worse than appoint Peter Taylor, who has expressed an interest, to their poisoned post. His record at this level and the one above, with Gillingham, Brighton and Hull, has rarely been matched, but is failing with Wycombe this season enough to count against him?

This week, Mark Yates has been plucked from Kidderminster by Cheltenham as the permanent replacement for Martin Allen, who also had a fine record in setting teams up for promotion challenges in the third, fourth and fifth tiers of English football.

At Cheltenham, Allen might not have enjoyed two and a half years - time to steady the ship first - like at Brentford, nor the financial muscle of MK Dons, and there were well documented off-field problems that made life difficult.

But when one "young" manager's credit runs out there are many more lining up for a chance. Yates joins a proliferation of not exactly old managers prospering in League Two, not least his first opponent, Bournemouth's Eddie Howe.

The Robins have a new cockerel to impress and, with the certainty a new incumbent brings combined with the new start feel of Christmas, poor form can improve.
The Cherries will be tough nuts to crack. They have their own ghosts to bury after that eye-watering 5-0 battering at Morecambe. Their injury list has eased, however, key man Shwan Jalal returning in goal.

Additionally, young Brett Pitman will want to reward Howe's faith in him by adding to his 24 goals in 40 league starts for him. There is pride at stake, personally and collectively, for all the participants and I can see this fixture satisfying those who like to think Boxing Day is full of draws at [3.5].

The Alexandra Stadium, Crewe, could host another level game. It is tempting to follow the adage: stick with a winning team, in visitors Rochdale, who have six wins on the bounce - at least until they lose anyone from a tight-knit squad in January.

If they remain together there is a serious chance they can justify being title favourites, currently available at [2.88]. It has taken a long time to depose Notts County of that mantle and it is only really worth assessing Rochdale's chances once January's business is done. Losing just one key player could be like taking a tin from the middle of the stack in the supermarket and the continued hints that nobody must be allowed to leave are a verse from the psychology manual trying to prevent it. Perhaps it has worked, with midfielders Will Atkinson and Jason Taylor extending their loan deals.

The [2.32] on Keith Hill's men is, however, a fair reflection of Crewe's rediscovered abilities under Dario Gradi, one of the Football League's elder statesmen. A more solid set up all round, unbeaten in five with nine goals to boot - Clayton Donaldson only failing to find the net in one of them - Crewe will be no soft touch.
To cover the draw, however, lay the hosts at [3.35].

Festive X factor hunters might want to consider the draw, at [3.7], along with one at Christie Park, where visitors Accrington are more than capable of holding Morecambe, who reverted to draws at Grimsby last Friday, having won seven in a row.

Michael Symes is the man for Stuart Drummond and co to worry about, but neither side will give much ground. Backers of over 2.5 goals at Crewe and Morecambe should be rewarded at [1.9]. Draw treble romantics should seek [41.0]. You never know.

Recommended Bets:

Lay Crewe at home to Rochdale at [3.35] and over 2.5 goals at [1.9]
Back Cheltenham to draw with Bournemouth at [3.5]
Back Morecambe to draw with Accrington at [3.7] and over 2.5 goals at [1.9]
For the traditionalists: All three games to draw at [41.0]

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