League Two Betting: The season Rochdale can kick on

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 15 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Dale Stephens of Rochdale.

"The portents for the season did not look good when Adam Le Fondre upped sticks to Rotherham in August. It was arguably a sign that perhaps the striker felt his best chances of promotion lay away from Spotland. After all, some people have christened this level “the Rochdale division” in honour of the Dale’s record number of years in it."

Ian Lamont tells us what's new in League Two this week, ahead of another intriguing round of fixtures, where Rochdale can get another win that will help them in yet another promotion quest.

Can Rochdale finally climb out of the Football League's bottom tier for the first time since 1974? I shall answer that negative sounding poser with another question: why not?
Victory against high-flying Barnet last weekend should have silenced any lingering doubters that Keith Hill's side are genuine promotion hopefuls.

The portents for the season did not look good when Adam Le Fondre upped sticks to Rotherham in August. It was arguably a sign that perhaps the striker felt his best chances of promotion lay away from Spotland. After all, some people have christened this level "the Rochdale division" in honour of the Dale's record number of years in it.

But when one person moves on another shines in their place. Chris Dagnall emerged as the latest hero last weekend, scoring once in an impressive performance as the Bees were defeated 2-1. Maybe now, at 23 and after injuries have already blighted his career, he can grasp the opportunity to resume the scoring record that took Rochdale to the play-off final two seasons ago. After that first Wembley appearance, Rochdale reached the semis again last season.

After so many years in the division, there is arguably a relative lack of expectation among their peers. A price of [14.0] to win the title outright would reflect that - as well as the huge amounts plunged on Notts County - but the lack of pressure coming with the "unexpected" tag could easily help them sustain a promotion bid.

With Will Buckley either creating chances or penalties, they can certainly account for Grimsby at Blundell Park this weekend at [2.1].

Mariners' boss Mike Newell is clearly feeling the pressure at the bottom if he is saying he needs new players. The transfer window - a device designed to regulate the top of the game - doesn't help the smaller fish who genuinely need to make changes swiftly if things are going badly wrong. However, Grimsby seem to have gone backwards under Newell. It would not surprise me if Newell was next manager to part company with his club.

Two managers did exactly that this week. The first was poor Ian McParland, who was always on a loser at what has become the Notts County soap opera. The other was Aldershot's Gary Waddock, who proved that Wycombe have better potential than the Hampshire club, who - like Rochdale it seems - have probably found their level.

The ginger magician's departure from the Rec makes me wonder whether the Shots will be demoralised against a revitalised Bury, even though I suspect caretaker Jason Dodd will be quite demanding.

I shall simply make the prediction that an open game should produce over 2.5 goals at [2.1], as it did last year in a mesmerising 3-3 draw.

Expect goals, too, at Victoria Road, where Dagenham - free-scoring as ever - entertain Bradford, themselves not goal shy against sides who like to play open football.

Winger Scott Neilson has challenged his Bantams team-mates to go on another 10-game unbeaten run, to underline their promotion credentials, after a 3-2 defeat to Crewe.

And it is the Railwaymen who provide the value bet this week - laying them at home to Port Vale at [2.2], or rather, for real value if you are feeling brave, backing the Valiants at [3.8].

My feeling - and that of long-suffering fans - that Micky Adams will turn them around was endorsed this week by Louis Dodds. In all the hullabaloo of fans' opinions on websites, phone-ins and comment sections, we forgot about the most important perspective - that in the dressing room.

Dodds quite helpfully points out that under-performing players would have just continued to amble on after being picked last season. But now there is so much competition for players - Adams having brought in nine new faces in the summer - that after a couple of bad performances a player is dropped.

That means it is only a matter of time before the team starts pulling in results.

This week's bets:

Port Vale at [3.8] to win at Crewe
Over 2.5 goals Dagenham v Bradford at [1.9]
Over 2.5 goals Aldershot v Bury at [2.1]
Best bet: Rochdale to win at Grimsby [2.1]