League Two Betting: Shrews to be tamed on the opening day

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 06 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Omer Riza and Shrewsbury should be opposed at home to newly-promoted Burton Albion on the opening day of the season.

Recommended Bets: Best bet Lay Shrewsbury at [1.84]; Back Northampton at [1.78];
Lay Crewe at [2.1]; Lay Chesterfield at [2.84]

Ian Lamont tells us why the first day of the season is always a special one for newly-promoted teams and how that means trusting Burton Albion to get something from their match against Shrewsbury.

Don't bet against the upwardly mobile new boys on the opening day. While trying to pay ever less attention to historical trends, I make it a rule to note the psychology that suggests promoted sides can be entrusted not to lose the season's opener. There might be the odd exception where the financial rug has been pulled from the manager's feet, odd as it may seem to do so when a higher level should mean higher income.

The curtain raiser should be treated like a cup final where players are at their best and it is also important to note that an adrenalin-led opener is no guide to the season.

Laying Shrewsbury at home to Blue Square Champions Burton (who will have their takers as [4.8], one of the big prices of the day) is low risk, as they are odds-on at [1.84]. After they sold Grant Holt to Norwich, they looked better before Paul Simpson - who promised to bring in a player of higher level quality - captured Brentford's Nathan Elder.

Both Shrewsbury and Burton are to be liked as clubs. Their boards offer their manager a sensible strategy and stability. I expect the Shrews to challenge for promotion this season, while gradual progress has always been enough for Brewers chairman Ben Robinson. He allowed Nigel Clough a decade to work at his own pace.

New boss Paul Peschisolido is an untried manager but he will be given time. The man must have something about him to be recommended by Crystal Palace boss Neil Warnock - who once managed Burton. He has certainly made some decent signings: Experienced Guy Branston at the back, midfielders Russell Penn and Robin Shroot - who will probably find his level in League Two - and Richard Walker up front.

I'm not sure what effect the new manager's broom has at the start of the season when the boss has had pre-season to get his points across. So John Sheridan's arrival at Chesterfield should not distract from the fact they are away to Torquay, back in the League after two years of regrouping in the Blue Square Premier.

It might be asking a little too much for Paul Buckle - who has learnt well at Plainmoor - to take an outright win. Lay Chesterfield at [2.84]. Torquay striker Scott Rendell will relish new scenery after breaking the Cambridge/Peterborough love cycle that seems to have beset his fledgling career. Striker partner Tim Sills has a point to prove in this division having had periods in the league blighted by injury. He might look a one-dimensional striker, but he has plenty to his game. Top scorer backers take note.

A lay is also my favoured play on Crewe, back in the fourth tier for the first time in 15 years after the string on their yo-yo between levels two and three finally snapped. No league wins in 11 at the end of last season does not bode well and at [2.1] they are certainly worth opposing. Manager Gudjon Thordason might have broken up Histon's Conference title chasing team by taking Patrick Ada and captain Mat Mitchell-King, but he is right in saying that Calvin Zola, Joel Grant and Anthony Elding have to start justifying the big fees paid for them last summer.

Opponents Dagenham seem large at [4.0]. Departures of some key players that propelled them close to the play-offs last term are countered by the manager John Still's repute for plucking players who turn out to be gems from non-league. Stuart Thurgood of Grays, Hayes's Josh Scott and winger Danny Green from Bishop Stortford are this season's imports. Bolstering them is Arsenal's Abu Ogogo in defence, where Will Antwi and Scott Doe are gaining good reviews. Significantly, striker Paul Benson has rejected moves elsewhere, but his wish to partner Jon Nurse may not be the long-term solution.

Finally, Northampton are the odds-on team I shall trust to win this weekend. They fit the Gillingham mould of an "only just relegated" team who could do well. Manager Stuart Gray reckons they will win a lot at Sixfields and is confident of having enough strikers back for Saturday, with Billy McKay about the only fit one. Arrivals this summer include trialist Chris McCready, a defender whom Gray has said has handled some quality strikers in pre-season. In which case he should be more than a match for anything Macclesfield can throw at him. Back the Cobblers at [1.78].

The price on Notts County winning has been slow to drop under evens - for a side resoundingly backed to win the title - and the hype makes it the weekend's game to study and analyse, but not to bet on.

Recommendations:
Best bet Lay Shrewsbury at [1.84]
Back Northampton at [1.78]
Lay Crewe at [2.1]
Lay Chesterfield at [2.84]