League Two Betting: Shrews not quite shrewd enough to overcome Bury

Two years ago I happily opined to a fellow gambler to lay Yeovil in the third-tier play-off outrights because their away form wasn't good enough. Naturally, 2-0 down from the home first leg, they then went and stuck five past Nottingham Forest and reached the final just to spite me, but then thankfully lost at Wembley.

I recall the tale now that travel sick Shrewsbury are [3.5] for victory at Bury in a game, at 1-0 down, they must win in 90 minutes to keep the tie alive. I am always wary of teams being a large price when they need to win.

The Shrews away form this term might be shocking - three all season - but Paul Simpson's side did win two away near the end of the campaign, arguably when it mattered most for the play-offs.

One slight concern. Grant Holt spent a fair time out wide and supplying crosses. Surely you always want your top scorer on the end of them, rather than just most of the time? It shows he's got variation to his game I suppose and - being a player everyone knows about - that he is trying to find alternatives to what opposing defenders expect.

The sort of terrible accident that befell Neil Ashton, whose back-pass resulted in an own-goal, can be enough to galvanise a team, especially after they largely restricted Bury.

Shrewsbury need to score and I reckon they can - Ben Davies being the most likely alternative to Holt. So I shall lay the Bury clean sheet at [2.5], but I don't see the visitors scoring twice. Not against a solid-looking backline with Ben Futcher and Efe Sodje and against a team unbeaten in 13 games.

At the other end, the Shakers can be great movers going forward but then not sustain it for 90 minutes. When they get chances at home, however, Andy Bishop and whoever plays alongside him - Jevons, Hurst or Morrell - can be lethal.

Unless there is a huge swing from the two teams' general trend this season, the result will be under 3.5 goals - [1.25] - and thus [6.6] for 1-1 or [10.0] for a 2-1 home win appeal in the full-time score markets.

I still expect Alan Knill's side to progress, as I do Gillingham - and that comes down to their manager Mark Stimson. The Kent club's boss won three FA Trophy Finals, indicating an ability to push his side to glory in the showpiece in a cup competition, which this now is.

In a new defensive organisation his team soaked up the pressure at Spotland that the likes of Lee Thorpe and the irrepressible Will Buckley and Adam Le Fondre threw at them, but it will be a different matter now.

Stimson said after the first leg he is looking for a hero. That indicates another tight encounter and we can expect Simeon Jackson to show his predatory skills alongside equally pacy Andy Barcham as the Gills press home what I think is their advantage, being level going into the second leg. Mark McCammon is a wonderful substitute to be able to call upon.

I'll be looking to back a Gillingham clean sheet at about [2.8] with a bet on the Gills to triumph 2-0 at [10.0].

Rochdale boss Keith Hill's assessment that all you need to do to go up is draw three games might have been factual response to the lack of goals in the first-leg, but the fact he said it suggests he thinks it's a possibility or even a plan.

I can't stand it when teams say they are aiming "for the play-offs" at the start of a season, because if you fail there is nothing to fall back on. If you shoot for the top and miss, at least you have the chance to salvage the season in the play-offs. Going for the soft option does not smack of confidence or ambition and for me Hill's remarks just underline that Dale are the outsiders for this four-way competition.

Nor do I subscribe automatically to the oft-proffered theory that the hurt of defeat in the play-offs one year gives you an edge against defeat in another year. To carry that argument through you still have to have the superiority to make it count and I just don't see it that way at Priestfield.

Lay Bury clean sheet at [2.75]
Bury to beat Shrewsbury 2-1 at [10.0]
Back Gillingham clean sheet at [2.8]
Gillingham to beat Rochdale 2-0 [10.0]