English Football League / Ian Lamont / 28 July 2011 /

He's back - League Two supremo Ian Lamont tells us that, while it's not impossible to win the Conference and fourth tier back-to-back, Crawley have a tough task if they're to justify their favouritism this season...

Steve Evans reckons Crawley could be Crystal Palace's main rivals in a few years, replacing Brighton. His belief was given credence when the sides drew 0-0 in a pre-season friendly, if you can really judge by such things.

What is true, however, is that Crawley are [4.2] runaway favourites for the League Two title, with Swindon next at [10.0].

Despite what non-leaguers claim after decent cup runs, League Two is not entirely similar to the Conference. The top half of England's fifth tier may be, but in the Football League each game will be a battle. In the Conference, some teams really struggle to put up a fight against the bigger clubs.

The promised land of the Football League brings bigger pooled and individual sponsorships, larger travelling support to bolster crowds and thus allows a bigger overall budget.

And winning these two leagues back-to-back is rare. Peterborough did it in 1960 and 1961. Since automatic promotion/relegation in 1987, only Darlington have done it (1990 and 1991).

It's not impossible, but Darlington, as a recently relegated League club, knew the rounds. Crawley, as first timers, don't. That is what makes the price too short to back: the suspicion is that layers who lost out big time last season are wary of losing more.
Not even Yeovil Town, the traditional non-league big cheeses from the West Country and much bigger than Crawley, won back-to-back promotions. Establishing yourself takes time.

Certainly if you make the most of what you have got you can do well. Accrington have punched above their weight under John Coleman. They struggled near the foot of the division in their first season. Aldershot Town, perhaps better prepared and supported, set a Conference points record - which Crawley broke last season - yet finished in the bottom half in their first year.

Teams do go up two years in a row. Exeter, who only spent a few seasons out of the Football League, went up via the play-offs then automatic promotion. Carlisle won the play-offs, then the fourth tier title. Both were ex-League clubs.

Stevenage, like Crawley, new to the league, were Conference champions and won last year's play-offs. But they took time to find their feet before a late season burst.

The Reds certainly won't struggle. The odds-on price to be promoted is the consequence of a strong squad being added to, albeit we don't really know which new striker will partner Matt Tubbs. At the back, John Dempster seems a decent short-term replacement for injured captain and centre-back Pablo Mills, who has recently had an ankle operation.

So if not Crawley, who?

A year ago I wanted bigger than [14.0] to back Port Vale. That price shortened as they spun to the top of the division before Micky Adams left and they spiralled downwards. Now Adams is back. His team-building was proving popular. If he can rekindle his steady progress the Valiants could turn out to be huge value at [29.0]. Much of the squad is the same, which is key. Striker Marc Richards has recovered quicker than expected from an ankle injury. Take [4.0] in the "to be promoted" market.

Instinctively, I am wary of relegated sides, but last season Wycombe seemed a good prospect for a quick turnaround, after Gary Waddock recruited well. This year, Bristol Rovers have done that in manager Paul Buckle. The Pirates have raided his old club, Torquay, for winger Chris Zebroski and keeper Scott Bevan, among many newcomers, including Matt Gill, who won those consecutive promotions with Exeter. Swindon's Paolo di Canio, who has signed Alan Connell, seems prepared to wait and possibly look to loans from Tottenham, so of the two priced around [10.0], Rovers seem the better bet.

A fair few signings at Gillingham excite, such as Danny Kedwell's switch from AFC Wimbledon, where he was talismanic. Odds of [17.0] seems a decent price on those willing to think Andy Hessenthaler can build on the progress of last season.

League Two Recommended Bets

Winner

Back Bristol Rovers at [10.0]
Back Port Vale at [29.0]
Back Gillingham at [17]

To be promoted

Back Port Vale at [4.0]

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