League Two Betting Preview: Wobbling Wycombe's squeaky bums

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 26 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ian Lamont assures us that he hasn't gone barking mad as he argues that travel-sick Shrewsbury are a value bet against tinkering Peter Taylor's men this weekend. Best bet: Chesterfield to beat Port Vale at [1.8].

Wycombe, plenty of people say, always start the season well but fall away. To a certain extent recent seasons' stats bear that out, while last season they improved from about 10th in December to a play-off spot.

This campaign they have faltered badly, a seven point lead at the top evaporating into a seven point deficit behind Brentford and dropping out of the automatic promotion places.

It is some wobble, which makes them, in my book, very layable at the odds-on prices being quoted by some bookmakers at home to Shrewsbury. Take the [2.1] on Betfair.

However, I would go further and suggest that their opponents are a cracking value bet to win at the huge odds of more than [4.0].

Before you think I've gone totally barking recommending a team to win away that hasn't done so since August - and one I have been against on their travels - let me explain how the odds are now too big to ignore.

For a start, Paul Simpson's side have the better momentum - just - with four draws in an unbeaten five-game run, compared to Wycombe's two defeats out of five.
The Shrews' comeback to draw from 2-0 down at Gillingham is evidence of their intent.
There are also positive noises coming from the likes of Town captain Graham Coughlan. Compare that to the despair emanating from some Chairboys fans fed up with Peter Taylor's tinkering, for which he is renowned and in many quarters unpopular among fans of his former clubs.

Some were most definitely unhappy with the team's performance well before they conceded in the 90th minute at home to Rochdale last weekend.

Psychologically Wycombe falling out of the top three will weigh heavy, while Shrewsbury have a second wind and an certain urgency, considering they face promotion candidates Rochdale and Bury and in-form Rotherham in their run-in.

The looking ahead element is key. I do stress the away win is a value bet, but this part of the season is squeaky bum time, as Sir Alex Ferguson likes to call it. That is, teams look at what they have to achieve with a clarity that forgets the pattern of the season.
Whatever your choice, add a side bet that this came will go the way of the last five at Adams Park and feature under 2.5 goals.

Urgency appears to have installed itself at Luton Town. In my opinion, the Hatters have left their charge too late to stay up, especially with most other relegation candidates bar crumbling Chester collecting good dollops of points.

But 17 points from 10 games gives them a better haul than most, hope and the type of momentum that can eek out a draw at Morecambe, who have 20 points from 10 unbeaten games.

For the visitors, captain Kevin Nicholls is still available ahead of his five-game ban - and there are still Wembley places to play for, while the hosts will be in no mood to give up their recent good run and possibly still sneak into the play-offs.

Fellow outside promotion chancers Chesterfield might have lost at Rotherham - who would be play-off contenders themselves without a points deduction - but that can be forgiven. They have won exactly every other game since the end of January, a flimsy stat for Port Vale to build any hope.

Lee Richardson's men won soundly at home to Rochdale on Wednesday, making it 18 points from 10 games. So at [1.8] consecutive victories beckon for the hosts, whose striker Jack Lester is very capable of shredding Vale. If not, Danny Gritton can ram down their defences.

With just one defeat at home this calendar year, Lee Richardson's men should have more than enough to defeat a dispirited Dean Glover and his side.

This will more than likely be the weekend Accrington's improved form of four wins and a draw from five will be quashed at Rotherham.

Mark Robbins' side are unbeaten in nine, taking 21 points, and if you ask me that run has been against generally more robust teams than Stanley who, it must be said, are quite capable of causing upsets. But this is not a day to do anything but take the [1.8] on a home win.